A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation

Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke condit...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: David Melecio-Vázquez, Chris Lautenberger, Ho Hsieh, Michael Amodeo, Jeremy R. Porter, Bradley Wilson, Mariah Pope, Evelyn Shu, Valentin Waeselynck, Edward J. Kearns
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-05-01
Series:Fire
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/6/220
Description
Summary:Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke conditions exceeding the threshold for unhealthy concentrations of particulate matter at or less than 2.5 µm, or PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Smoke yield from simulated fires is converted to emissions transported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model. We present a strategy for sampling from a simulation of ~65 million individual fires, to depict the occurrence of “unhealthy smoke days” defined as 24-h average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration greater than 35.4 µg/m<sup>3</sup> from HYSPLIT. The comparison with historical smoke simulations finds reasonable agreement using only a small subset of simulated fires. The total amount of PM<sub>2.5</sub> mass-released threshold of 10<sup>15</sup> µg was found to be effective for simulating the occurrence of unhealthy days without significant computational burden.
ISSN:2571-6255