A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation
Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke condit...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Fire |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/6/220 |
| _version_ | 1797594858384261120 |
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| author | David Melecio-Vázquez Chris Lautenberger Ho Hsieh Michael Amodeo Jeremy R. Porter Bradley Wilson Mariah Pope Evelyn Shu Valentin Waeselynck Edward J. Kearns |
| author_facet | David Melecio-Vázquez Chris Lautenberger Ho Hsieh Michael Amodeo Jeremy R. Porter Bradley Wilson Mariah Pope Evelyn Shu Valentin Waeselynck Edward J. Kearns |
| author_sort | David Melecio-Vázquez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke conditions exceeding the threshold for unhealthy concentrations of particulate matter at or less than 2.5 µm, or PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Smoke yield from simulated fires is converted to emissions transported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model. We present a strategy for sampling from a simulation of ~65 million individual fires, to depict the occurrence of “unhealthy smoke days” defined as 24-h average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration greater than 35.4 µg/m<sup>3</sup> from HYSPLIT. The comparison with historical smoke simulations finds reasonable agreement using only a small subset of simulated fires. The total amount of PM<sub>2.5</sub> mass-released threshold of 10<sup>15</sup> µg was found to be effective for simulating the occurrence of unhealthy days without significant computational burden. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:28:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f84b8afbc0b4b35a30c4a3ab1b45310 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:28:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f84b8afbc0b4b35a30c4a3ab1b453102023-11-18T10:22:00ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552023-05-016622010.3390/fire6060220A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> EstimationDavid Melecio-Vázquez0Chris Lautenberger1Ho Hsieh2Michael Amodeo3Jeremy R. Porter4Bradley Wilson5Mariah Pope6Evelyn Shu7Valentin Waeselynck8Edward J. Kearns9First Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAReax Engineering Inc., 1921 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94704, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USASpatial Informatics Group, 2529 Yolanda Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94566, USAFirst Street Foundation, 32 Bridge St. Floor 3, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USAAccurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke conditions exceeding the threshold for unhealthy concentrations of particulate matter at or less than 2.5 µm, or PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Smoke yield from simulated fires is converted to emissions transported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model. We present a strategy for sampling from a simulation of ~65 million individual fires, to depict the occurrence of “unhealthy smoke days” defined as 24-h average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration greater than 35.4 µg/m<sup>3</sup> from HYSPLIT. The comparison with historical smoke simulations finds reasonable agreement using only a small subset of simulated fires. The total amount of PM<sub>2.5</sub> mass-released threshold of 10<sup>15</sup> µg was found to be effective for simulating the occurrence of unhealthy days without significant computational burden.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/6/220fire behavior modelsmoke transport modeldispersionair qualityparticulate matterfire emissions |
| spellingShingle | David Melecio-Vázquez Chris Lautenberger Ho Hsieh Michael Amodeo Jeremy R. Porter Bradley Wilson Mariah Pope Evelyn Shu Valentin Waeselynck Edward J. Kearns A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation Fire fire behavior model smoke transport model dispersion air quality particulate matter fire emissions |
| title | A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation |
| title_full | A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation |
| title_fullStr | A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation |
| title_short | A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM<sub>2.5</sub> Estimation |
| title_sort | coupled wildfire emission and dispersion framework for probabilistic pm sub 2 5 sub estimation |
| topic | fire behavior model smoke transport model dispersion air quality particulate matter fire emissions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/6/220 |
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