Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast
LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 20...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2203 |
| _version_ | 1797469619021152256 |
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| author | Ayesha Anwar Kannika Na-Lampang Narin Preyavichyapugdee Veerasak Punyapornwithaya |
| author_facet | Ayesha Anwar Kannika Na-Lampang Narin Preyavichyapugdee Veerasak Punyapornwithaya |
| author_sort | Ayesha Anwar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016–2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015–2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022–2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023–2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:22:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3fd1750c5a8646dabf47f1aa42df1579 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:22:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-3fd1750c5a8646dabf47f1aa42df15792023-11-24T03:09:17ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152022-10-011410220310.3390/v14102203Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series ForecastAyesha Anwar0Kannika Na-Lampang1Narin Preyavichyapugdee2Veerasak Punyapornwithaya3Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Centre for Asia Pacific (VPHCAP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, ThailandDepartment of Veterinary Biosciences and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, ThailandFaculty of Animal Sciences and Agricultural Technology, Silpakorn University, Phetchaburi Campus, Phetchaburi 76120, ThailandCenter of Excellence in Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, ThailandLSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016–2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015–2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022–2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023–2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2203lumpy skin diseasechange point analysistime seriesoutbreaksforecastAfrica |
| spellingShingle | Ayesha Anwar Kannika Na-Lampang Narin Preyavichyapugdee Veerasak Punyapornwithaya Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast Viruses lumpy skin disease change point analysis time series outbreaks forecast Africa |
| title | Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast |
| title_full | Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast |
| title_fullStr | Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast |
| title_short | Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005–2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast |
| title_sort | lumpy skin disease outbreaks in africa europe and asia 2005 2022 multiple change point analysis and time series forecast |
| topic | lumpy skin disease change point analysis time series outbreaks forecast Africa |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2203 |
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