Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer
Using ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Typhoon Dujuan (201521). The results show that the u...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1263 |
| _version_ | 1797547040337559552 |
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| author | Xiaohao Qin Wansuo Duan |
| author_facet | Xiaohao Qin Wansuo Duan |
| author_sort | Xiaohao Qin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Typhoon Dujuan (201521). The results show that the uncertainty in the boundary layer in the typhoon area, compared with that in other areas of the model domain, not only leads to a much larger forecast uncertainty of the typhoon intensity but also considerably perturbs the RI forecast uncertainty. Particularly, the uncertainty in the gale area in the boundary layer, compared with that in the inner-core and other areas, makes a much larger contribution to the forecast uncertainty of typhoon intensity, with the perturbations including moisture component being most strongly correlated with the occurrence of RI. Further analyses show that such perturbations increase the maximum tangential wind in the boundary layer and enhance the vorticity in the eyewall, which then facilitate the spin-up of the inner-core and induce the occurrence of RI. It is inferred that more observations, especially those associated with the moisture, should be preferentially assimilated in the gale area within the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone, which will help improve the forecast skill of the RI. These results also tell us that the boundary layer parameterization scheme should be further developed to improve the forecast skill of tropical cyclone intensity and its RI behavior. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:38:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3fd689ebf86849098328a99498e85533 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:38:44Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-3fd689ebf86849098328a99498e855332023-11-20T21:57:59ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-11-011111126310.3390/atmos11111263Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary LayerXiaohao Qin0Wansuo Duan1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaUsing ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Typhoon Dujuan (201521). The results show that the uncertainty in the boundary layer in the typhoon area, compared with that in other areas of the model domain, not only leads to a much larger forecast uncertainty of the typhoon intensity but also considerably perturbs the RI forecast uncertainty. Particularly, the uncertainty in the gale area in the boundary layer, compared with that in the inner-core and other areas, makes a much larger contribution to the forecast uncertainty of typhoon intensity, with the perturbations including moisture component being most strongly correlated with the occurrence of RI. Further analyses show that such perturbations increase the maximum tangential wind in the boundary layer and enhance the vorticity in the eyewall, which then facilitate the spin-up of the inner-core and induce the occurrence of RI. It is inferred that more observations, especially those associated with the moisture, should be preferentially assimilated in the gale area within the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone, which will help improve the forecast skill of the RI. These results also tell us that the boundary layer parameterization scheme should be further developed to improve the forecast skill of tropical cyclone intensity and its RI behavior.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1263rapid intensificationforecasttyphoonuncertaintyboundary layer |
| spellingShingle | Xiaohao Qin Wansuo Duan Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer Atmosphere rapid intensification forecast typhoon uncertainty boundary layer |
| title | Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer |
| title_full | Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer |
| title_fullStr | Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer |
| title_short | Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer |
| title_sort | forecast uncertainty of rapid intensification of typhoon dujuan 201521 induced by uncertainty in the boundary layer |
| topic | rapid intensification forecast typhoon uncertainty boundary layer |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1263 |
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