Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia
Regional climate models (RCMs) that produce good outputs in one region or for specific variables may underperform for others. Thereby, assessing the performance of various model simulations and their corresponding mean ensemble is critical in identifying the most suitable models. In this regard, a s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023075874 |
| _version_ | 1797646576053649408 |
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| author | Yonas Mathewos Brook Abate Mulugeta Dadi |
| author_facet | Yonas Mathewos Brook Abate Mulugeta Dadi |
| author_sort | Yonas Mathewos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Regional climate models (RCMs) that produce good outputs in one region or for specific variables may underperform for others. Thereby, assessing the performance of various model simulations and their corresponding mean ensemble is critical in identifying the most suitable models. In this regard, a study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ten RCMs against observations from multiple ground-based stations in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia, during the baseline period of 1986–2005. The study evaluated the models' ability to replicate various aspects of climatic variables and their corresponding statistical indicators. The results confirmed that RCMs have varying abilities to reproduce climatic conditions across the basin. The ensembles and RACMO22T (EC-EARTH) were better at replicating the average annual precipitation distribution. Meanwhile, the CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) together with the ensembles better captured the measured precipitation annually, despite the discrepancies in the actual magnitudes. All RCMs were able to simulate the seasonal precipitation patterns effectively, with RACMO22T (EC-EARTH), CCLM4-8-17 (CNRM), RCA4 (CNRM), CCLM4-8-17 (MPI), and REMO2009 (MPI) models captured superior, excluding the maximum value. Interannual and seasonal rainfall pattern variations were more significant than variations in air temperature. Additionally, a better correlation was observed between actual and simulated precipitation at multiple separate monitoring places. The RCA4 (MPI) and CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) demonstrated reasonable minimum and maximum temperatures. The RCA4 (MIROC5) model was more effective in reproducing extreme precipitation events. However, all RCMs and their ensembles tended to overestimate the return periods of these events. In general, the research highlights the importance of selecting reliable RCMs that better replicate observed climatic settings and employing the ensemble mean of top-performing models following systematic bias adjustment for a specific application. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:03:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3fe672d66f1e4ae8882ad91620b7f41d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:03:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-3fe672d66f1e4ae8882ad91620b7f41d2023-10-30T06:05:52ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402023-10-01910e20379Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, EthiopiaYonas Mathewos0Brook Abate1Mulugeta Dadi2Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, EthiopiaFaculty of Biosystems and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, EthiopiaRegional climate models (RCMs) that produce good outputs in one region or for specific variables may underperform for others. Thereby, assessing the performance of various model simulations and their corresponding mean ensemble is critical in identifying the most suitable models. In this regard, a study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ten RCMs against observations from multiple ground-based stations in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia, during the baseline period of 1986–2005. The study evaluated the models' ability to replicate various aspects of climatic variables and their corresponding statistical indicators. The results confirmed that RCMs have varying abilities to reproduce climatic conditions across the basin. The ensembles and RACMO22T (EC-EARTH) were better at replicating the average annual precipitation distribution. Meanwhile, the CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) together with the ensembles better captured the measured precipitation annually, despite the discrepancies in the actual magnitudes. All RCMs were able to simulate the seasonal precipitation patterns effectively, with RACMO22T (EC-EARTH), CCLM4-8-17 (CNRM), RCA4 (CNRM), CCLM4-8-17 (MPI), and REMO2009 (MPI) models captured superior, excluding the maximum value. Interannual and seasonal rainfall pattern variations were more significant than variations in air temperature. Additionally, a better correlation was observed between actual and simulated precipitation at multiple separate monitoring places. The RCA4 (MPI) and CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) demonstrated reasonable minimum and maximum temperatures. The RCA4 (MIROC5) model was more effective in reproducing extreme precipitation events. However, all RCMs and their ensembles tended to overestimate the return periods of these events. In general, the research highlights the importance of selecting reliable RCMs that better replicate observed climatic settings and employing the ensemble mean of top-performing models following systematic bias adjustment for a specific application.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023075874CORDEX-AfricaClimatic settingMulti-model ensembleRCMsSkill |
| spellingShingle | Yonas Mathewos Brook Abate Mulugeta Dadi Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia Heliyon CORDEX-Africa Climatic setting Multi-model ensemble RCMs Skill |
| title | Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | characterization of the skill of the cordex africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the east african transboundary omo gibe river basin ethiopia |
| topic | CORDEX-Africa Climatic setting Multi-model ensemble RCMs Skill |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023075874 |
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