Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can trigger severe floods in mountain regions. There is high uncertainty about how the frequency of ROS events (ROS) and associated floods will change as climate warms. Previous research has found considerable spatial variability in ROS responses to climate change. Detailed...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0dde |
| _version_ | 1797747581178085376 |
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| author | J I López-Moreno J W Pomeroy E Morán-Tejeda J Revuelto F M Navarro-Serrano I Vidaller E Alonso-González |
| author_facet | J I López-Moreno J W Pomeroy E Morán-Tejeda J Revuelto F M Navarro-Serrano I Vidaller E Alonso-González |
| author_sort | J I López-Moreno |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can trigger severe floods in mountain regions. There is high uncertainty about how the frequency of ROS events (ROS) and associated floods will change as climate warms. Previous research has found considerable spatial variability in ROS responses to climate change. Detailed global assessments have not been conducted. Here, atmospheric reanalysis data was used to drive a physically based snow hydrology model to simulate the snowpack and the streamflow response to climate warming of a 5.25 km ^2 virtual basin (VB) applied to different high mountain climates around the world. Results confirm that the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming is highly variable among sites, and also with different elevations, aspects and slopes in each basin. The hydrological model predicts a decrease in the frequency of ROS with warming in 30 out 40 of the VBs analyzed; the rest have increasing ROS. The dominant phase of precipitation, duration of snow cover and average temperature of each basin are the main factors that explain this variation in the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming. Within each basin, the largest decreases in ROS were predicted to be at lower elevations and on slopes with sunward aspects. Although the overall frequency of ROS drops, the hydrological importance of ROS is not expected to decline. Peak streamflows due to ROS are predicted to increase due to more rapid melting from enhanced energy inputs, and warmer snowpacks during future ROS. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4052d692ffbe49098a15498216700f4f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:39Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-4052d692ffbe49098a15498216700f4f2023-08-09T15:03:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116909402110.1088/1748-9326/ac0ddeChanges in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warmingJ I López-Moreno0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-9313J W Pomeroy1E Morán-Tejeda2J Revuelto3F M Navarro-Serrano4I Vidaller5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8136-7688E Alonso-González6Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC , Zaragoza 50059, SpainCentre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan , Canmore T1W 3G1, CanadaDepartment of Geography, University of the Balearic Islands , Palma 07122, SpainPyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC , Zaragoza 50059, SpainPyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC , Zaragoza 50059, SpainPyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC , Zaragoza 50059, SpainPyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC , Zaragoza 50059, SpainRain-on-snow (ROS) events can trigger severe floods in mountain regions. There is high uncertainty about how the frequency of ROS events (ROS) and associated floods will change as climate warms. Previous research has found considerable spatial variability in ROS responses to climate change. Detailed global assessments have not been conducted. Here, atmospheric reanalysis data was used to drive a physically based snow hydrology model to simulate the snowpack and the streamflow response to climate warming of a 5.25 km ^2 virtual basin (VB) applied to different high mountain climates around the world. Results confirm that the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming is highly variable among sites, and also with different elevations, aspects and slopes in each basin. The hydrological model predicts a decrease in the frequency of ROS with warming in 30 out 40 of the VBs analyzed; the rest have increasing ROS. The dominant phase of precipitation, duration of snow cover and average temperature of each basin are the main factors that explain this variation in the sensitivity of ROS to climate warming. Within each basin, the largest decreases in ROS were predicted to be at lower elevations and on slopes with sunward aspects. Although the overall frequency of ROS drops, the hydrological importance of ROS is not expected to decline. Peak streamflows due to ROS are predicted to increase due to more rapid melting from enhanced energy inputs, and warmer snowpacks during future ROS.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0dderain on snow events (ROS)sensitivity analysisclimate warmingsnow hydrologyhydrological modellinghigh mountains |
| spellingShingle | J I López-Moreno J W Pomeroy E Morán-Tejeda J Revuelto F M Navarro-Serrano I Vidaller E Alonso-González Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming Environmental Research Letters rain on snow events (ROS) sensitivity analysis climate warming snow hydrology hydrological modelling high mountains |
| title | Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming |
| title_full | Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming |
| title_fullStr | Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming |
| title_short | Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming |
| title_sort | changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain on snow events due to climate warming |
| topic | rain on snow events (ROS) sensitivity analysis climate warming snow hydrology hydrological modelling high mountains |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0dde |
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