Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau
Many single-land-use simulation models are available to simulate and predict Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). However, few studies have used multiple models to simulate LUCC in the same region. The paper utilizes the CA-Markov model, Land Change Modeler (LCM), and Patch-generating Land Use Sim...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/14/3629 |
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| author | Xinran Yu Jiangtao Xiao Ke Huang Yuanyuan Li Yang Lin Gang Qi Tao Liu Ping Ren |
| author_facet | Xinran Yu Jiangtao Xiao Ke Huang Yuanyuan Li Yang Lin Gang Qi Tao Liu Ping Ren |
| author_sort | Xinran Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many single-land-use simulation models are available to simulate and predict Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). However, few studies have used multiple models to simulate LUCC in the same region. The paper utilizes the CA-Markov model, Land Change Modeler (LCM), and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) with natural and social driving factors to simulate the LUCC on the Western Sichuan Plateau, using Kappa coefficient, overall accuracy (OA), and Figure of Merit (FoM) to verify the accuracy of the model, and selects a suitable model to predict the LUCC and landscape pattern in the study area from 2020 to 2070. The results are as follows: (1) The LCM has the highest simulation effect, and its Kappa coefficient, OA, and FoM are higher than the other two models. (2) The area of land types other than grassland and wetland will increase from 2020 to 2070. Among them, the grassland area will decrease, but is still most prominent land category in this region. The proportion of wetland areas remains unchanged. The fragmentation degree of forest (F), grassland (GL), shrubland (SL), water bodies (WBs), bare areas (BAs), and permanent ice and snow (PIS) decreases, and the distribution shows a trend of aggregation. The dominance of F and C decreases but still dominates in the landscape. The overall landscape aggregation increased and complexity decreased, and each landscape type’s diversity, evenness, and richness increased, presenting as a more reasonable development. Using multiple models to simulate the LUCC in the same region, and choosing the most suitable local land model is of great significance to scientifically manage and effectively allocate the land resources in the field. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:40:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-40faa4af9e994d44971bf29ca4e75780 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:40:52Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-40faa4af9e994d44971bf29ca4e757802023-11-18T21:13:29ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-07-011514362910.3390/rs15143629Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan PlateauXinran Yu0Jiangtao Xiao1Ke Huang2Yuanyuan Li3Yang Lin4Gang Qi5Tao Liu6Ping Ren7Key Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, ChinaKey Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, ChinaDepartment of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, DenmarkKey Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, ChinaKey Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, ChinaKey Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaThe Faculty of Geography and Resources Sciences, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, ChinaMany single-land-use simulation models are available to simulate and predict Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). However, few studies have used multiple models to simulate LUCC in the same region. The paper utilizes the CA-Markov model, Land Change Modeler (LCM), and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) with natural and social driving factors to simulate the LUCC on the Western Sichuan Plateau, using Kappa coefficient, overall accuracy (OA), and Figure of Merit (FoM) to verify the accuracy of the model, and selects a suitable model to predict the LUCC and landscape pattern in the study area from 2020 to 2070. The results are as follows: (1) The LCM has the highest simulation effect, and its Kappa coefficient, OA, and FoM are higher than the other two models. (2) The area of land types other than grassland and wetland will increase from 2020 to 2070. Among them, the grassland area will decrease, but is still most prominent land category in this region. The proportion of wetland areas remains unchanged. The fragmentation degree of forest (F), grassland (GL), shrubland (SL), water bodies (WBs), bare areas (BAs), and permanent ice and snow (PIS) decreases, and the distribution shows a trend of aggregation. The dominance of F and C decreases but still dominates in the landscape. The overall landscape aggregation increased and complexity decreased, and each landscape type’s diversity, evenness, and richness increased, presenting as a more reasonable development. Using multiple models to simulate the LUCC in the same region, and choosing the most suitable local land model is of great significance to scientifically manage and effectively allocate the land resources in the field.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/14/3629simulation and predictionPLUS modelCA-Markov modelLCMWestern Sichuan Plateau |
| spellingShingle | Xinran Yu Jiangtao Xiao Ke Huang Yuanyuan Li Yang Lin Gang Qi Tao Liu Ping Ren Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau Remote Sensing simulation and prediction PLUS model CA-Markov model LCM Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title | Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title_full | Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title_short | Simulation of Land Use Based on Multiple Models in the Western Sichuan Plateau |
| title_sort | simulation of land use based on multiple models in the western sichuan plateau |
| topic | simulation and prediction PLUS model CA-Markov model LCM Western Sichuan Plateau |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/14/3629 |
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