Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century
Abstract During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2017-12-01
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| Series: | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5 |
| _version_ | 1828376156493053952 |
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| author | Pavel Groisman Herman Shugart David Kicklighter Geoffrey Henebry Nadezhda Tchebakova Shamil Maksyutov Erwan Monier Garik Gutman Sergey Gulev Jiaguo Qi Alexander Prishchepov Elena Kukavskaya Boris Porfiriev Alexander Shiklomanov Tatiana Loboda Nikolay Shiklomanov Son Nghiem Kathleen Bergen Jana Albrechtová Jiquan Chen Maria Shahgedanova Anatoly Shvidenko Nina Speranskaya Amber Soja Kirsten de Beurs Olga Bulygina Jessica McCarty Qianlai Zhuang Olga Zolina |
| author_facet | Pavel Groisman Herman Shugart David Kicklighter Geoffrey Henebry Nadezhda Tchebakova Shamil Maksyutov Erwan Monier Garik Gutman Sergey Gulev Jiaguo Qi Alexander Prishchepov Elena Kukavskaya Boris Porfiriev Alexander Shiklomanov Tatiana Loboda Nikolay Shiklomanov Son Nghiem Kathleen Bergen Jana Albrechtová Jiquan Chen Maria Shahgedanova Anatoly Shvidenko Nina Speranskaya Amber Soja Kirsten de Beurs Olga Bulygina Jessica McCarty Qianlai Zhuang Olga Zolina |
| author_sort | Pavel Groisman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:56:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4158b32b838e46dab7c473d03e7f6b78 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2197-4284 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:56:35Z |
| publishDate | 2017-12-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-4158b32b838e46dab7c473d03e7f6b782022-12-22T02:05:03ZengSpringerOpenProgress in Earth and Planetary Science2197-42842017-12-014114810.1186/s40645-017-0154-5Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first centuryPavel Groisman0Herman Shugart1David Kicklighter2Geoffrey Henebry3Nadezhda Tchebakova4Shamil Maksyutov5Erwan Monier6Garik Gutman7Sergey Gulev8Jiaguo Qi9Alexander Prishchepov10Elena Kukavskaya11Boris Porfiriev12Alexander Shiklomanov13Tatiana Loboda14Nikolay Shiklomanov15Son Nghiem16Kathleen Bergen17Jana Albrechtová18Jiquan Chen19Maria Shahgedanova20Anatoly Shvidenko21Nina Speranskaya22Amber Soja23Kirsten de Beurs24Olga Bulygina25Jessica McCarty26Qianlai Zhuang27Olga Zolina28NEESPI Project Scientist, NC State University Research Scholar, at at NOAA National Centers for Environment Information, Federal BuildingDepartment Environmental Sciences, University of VirginiaThe Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological LaboratoryGeospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State UniversitySukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS–Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS”National Institute for Environmental StudiesJoint Program of the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNASA Headquarters, The NASA Land-Cover/Land-Use Change ProgramP.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RASDepartment of Geography, Michigan State UniversityDepartment Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Section of Geography, University of CopenhagenSukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS–Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS”Institute for Economic Forecasting, RASEarth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Morse HallDepartment Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland–College ParkDepartment of Geography, George Washington UniversityJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, MS 300-235School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of MichiganDepartment of Experimental Plant Biology, Faculty of Science, Charles University in PragueDepartment of Geography, Michigan State UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, The University of Reading, WhiteknightsEcosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)State Hydrological InstituteNational Institute of Aerospace, NASA Langley Research CenterDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of OklahomaRussian Institute for Hydrometeorological InformationMichigan Tech Research InstitutePurdue UniversityLaboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, Joseph Fourier University-Grenoble 1Abstract During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5Environmental changesNorthern EurasiaEcosystems dynamicsTerrestrial water cycleCryosphere retreatExtreme and inclement environmental conditions |
| spellingShingle | Pavel Groisman Herman Shugart David Kicklighter Geoffrey Henebry Nadezhda Tchebakova Shamil Maksyutov Erwan Monier Garik Gutman Sergey Gulev Jiaguo Qi Alexander Prishchepov Elena Kukavskaya Boris Porfiriev Alexander Shiklomanov Tatiana Loboda Nikolay Shiklomanov Son Nghiem Kathleen Bergen Jana Albrechtová Jiquan Chen Maria Shahgedanova Anatoly Shvidenko Nina Speranskaya Amber Soja Kirsten de Beurs Olga Bulygina Jessica McCarty Qianlai Zhuang Olga Zolina Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Environmental changes Northern Eurasia Ecosystems dynamics Terrestrial water cycle Cryosphere retreat Extreme and inclement environmental conditions |
| title | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_full | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_fullStr | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_short | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_sort | northern eurasia future initiative nefi facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty first century |
| topic | Environmental changes Northern Eurasia Ecosystems dynamics Terrestrial water cycle Cryosphere retreat Extreme and inclement environmental conditions |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5 |
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