Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast
The USDA produces four forecasts of net farm income for each year; these forecasts are closely monitored by decision makers across the agricultural sector. However, little is known about the performance of these forecasts. Traditional forecast evaluation tests suggest that between 1975 and 2016, the...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Western Agricultural Economics Association
2018-09-01
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| Series: | Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276505 |
| _version_ | 1818879616890175488 |
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| author | Todd H. Kuethe Todd Hubbs Dwight R. Sanders |
| author_facet | Todd H. Kuethe Todd Hubbs Dwight R. Sanders |
| author_sort | Todd H. Kuethe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The USDA produces four forecasts of net farm income for each year; these forecasts are closely monitored by decision makers across the agricultural sector. However, little is known about the performance of these forecasts. Traditional forecast evaluation tests suggest that between 1975 and 2016, the long-horizon forecasts systematically under-predicted realized values. In addition, the shorter-horizon forecast revisions overreact to new information. The findings suggest that forecast users should adjust their expectations and that the USDA may want to consider other forecast approaches to supplement current procedures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:32:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-419f34a68c30442f95aa655b7272a166 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1068-5502 2327-8285 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:32:55Z |
| publishDate | 2018-09-01 |
| publisher | Western Agricultural Economics Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-419f34a68c30442f95aa655b7272a1662022-12-21T20:17:23ZengWestern Agricultural Economics AssociationJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics1068-55022327-82852018-09-0143345746810.22004/ag.econ.276505276505Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income ForecastTodd H. KuetheTodd HubbsDwight R. SandersThe USDA produces four forecasts of net farm income for each year; these forecasts are closely monitored by decision makers across the agricultural sector. However, little is known about the performance of these forecasts. Traditional forecast evaluation tests suggest that between 1975 and 2016, the long-horizon forecasts systematically under-predicted realized values. In addition, the shorter-horizon forecast revisions overreact to new information. The findings suggest that forecast users should adjust their expectations and that the USDA may want to consider other forecast approaches to supplement current procedures.https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276505fixed-event forecastsforecast evaluationnet farm income |
| spellingShingle | Todd H. Kuethe Todd Hubbs Dwight R. Sanders Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics fixed-event forecasts forecast evaluation net farm income |
| title | Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast |
| title_full | Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast |
| title_short | Evaluating the USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast |
| title_sort | evaluating the usda s net farm income forecast |
| topic | fixed-event forecasts forecast evaluation net farm income |
| url | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276505 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT toddhkuethe evaluatingtheusdasnetfarmincomeforecast AT toddhubbs evaluatingtheusdasnetfarmincomeforecast AT dwightrsanders evaluatingtheusdasnetfarmincomeforecast |