Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies
The main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention stra...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PeerJ Inc.
2020-06-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/9421.pdf |
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| author | Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M.S. Macêdo Raydonal Ospina Francisco A.G. Almeida Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Inês C.L. Souza |
| author_facet | Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M.S. Macêdo Raydonal Ospina Francisco A.G. Almeida Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Inês C.L. Souza |
| author_sort | Giovani L. Vasconcelos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to May 8, 2020. Countries selected for analysis with the RGM were China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Spain. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of the other above countries, which supposedly are in the middle or towards the end of the outbreak at the time of this writing. We also analysed the case of Brazil, which is in an initial sub-exponential growth regime, and so we used the generalised growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy of the outbreak to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:27:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-41b99da43b914a7aa715e5183bdf53a8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:27:02Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-41b99da43b914a7aa715e5183bdf53a82023-12-03T06:52:13ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592020-06-018e942110.7717/peerj.9421Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategiesGiovani L. Vasconcelos0Antônio M.S. Macêdo1Raydonal Ospina2Francisco A.G. Almeida3Gerson C. Duarte-Filho4Arthur A. Brum5Inês C.L. Souza6Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, BrazilDepartamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, BrazilDepartamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, BrazilDepartamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão, Sergipe, BrazilDepartamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão, Sergipe, BrazilDepartamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil3Hippos Data Consulting, Unaffiliated, Curitiba, Paraná, BrazilThe main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to May 8, 2020. Countries selected for analysis with the RGM were China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Spain. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of the other above countries, which supposedly are in the middle or towards the end of the outbreak at the time of this writing. We also analysed the case of Brazil, which is in an initial sub-exponential growth regime, and so we used the generalised growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy of the outbreak to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.https://peerj.com/articles/9421.pdfCOVID-19Fatality curveRichards growth modelIntervention strategies |
| spellingShingle | Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M.S. Macêdo Raydonal Ospina Francisco A.G. Almeida Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Inês C.L. Souza Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies PeerJ COVID-19 Fatality curve Richards growth model Intervention strategies |
| title | Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_full | Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_fullStr | Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_short | Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| title_sort | modelling fatality curves of covid 19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies |
| topic | COVID-19 Fatality curve Richards growth model Intervention strategies |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/9421.pdf |
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