The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations an...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 |
| _version_ | 1797266693082316800 |
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| author | Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski |
| author_facet | Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski |
| author_sort | Weiming Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:04:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4203e923d6474463a93082fc52447356 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:04:44Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-4203e923d6474463a93082fc524473562024-03-10T12:17:06ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-03-0115111110.1038/s41467-024-45159-5The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trendsWeiming Ma0Hailong Wang1Gang Chen2L. Ruby Leung3Jian Lu4Philip J. Rasch5Qiang Fu6Ben Kravitz7Yufei Zou8John J. Cassano9Wieslaw Maslowski10Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los AngelesAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of WashingtonDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of WashingtonAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of ColoradoDepartment of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate SchoolAbstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 |
| spellingShingle | Weiming Ma Hailong Wang Gang Chen L. Ruby Leung Jian Lu Philip J. Rasch Qiang Fu Ben Kravitz Yufei Zou John J. Cassano Wieslaw Maslowski The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends Nature Communications |
| title | The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
| title_full | The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
| title_fullStr | The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
| title_short | The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends |
| title_sort | role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving arctic atmospheric river trends |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5 |
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