Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO
A covariance decomposition method is applied to a monthly global precipitation dataset to decompose the interannual variability in the seasonal mean time series into an unpredictable component related to “weather noise” and to a potentially predictable component related to slowly varying boundary fo...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/4/695 |
| _version_ | 1797606411681660928 |
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| author | Haibo Liu Xiaogu Zheng Jing Yuan Carsten S. Frederiksen |
| author_facet | Haibo Liu Xiaogu Zheng Jing Yuan Carsten S. Frederiksen |
| author_sort | Haibo Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A covariance decomposition method is applied to a monthly global precipitation dataset to decompose the interannual variability in the seasonal mean time series into an unpredictable component related to “weather noise” and to a potentially predictable component related to slowly varying boundary forcing and low-frequency internal dynamics. The “potential predictability” is then defined as the fraction of the total interannual variance accounted for by the latter component. In tropical oceans (30° E–0° W, 30° S–30° N), the consensus is that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, with 4–8 year cycles) is a dominant driver of the potentially predictable component, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, with 30–90 days cycles) is a dominant driver of the unpredictable component. In this study, the consensus is verified by using the Nino3-4 SST index and a popular MJO index. It is confirmed that Nino3-4 SST does indeed explain a significant part of the potential predictable component, but only limited variability of the unpredictable component is explained by the MJO index. This raises the question of whether the MJO is dominant in the variability of the unpredictable component of the precipitation, or the current MJO indexes do not represent MJO variability well. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:14:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-421422cc7db34fff895a9a91f26b25f5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:14:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-421422cc7db34fff895a9a91f26b25f52023-11-17T18:17:28ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-04-0114469510.3390/atmos14040695Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJOHaibo Liu0Xiaogu Zheng1Jing Yuan2Carsten S. Frederiksen3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USAInternational Global Change Institute, Hamilton 3210, New ZealandInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USAThe Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3001, AustraliaA covariance decomposition method is applied to a monthly global precipitation dataset to decompose the interannual variability in the seasonal mean time series into an unpredictable component related to “weather noise” and to a potentially predictable component related to slowly varying boundary forcing and low-frequency internal dynamics. The “potential predictability” is then defined as the fraction of the total interannual variance accounted for by the latter component. In tropical oceans (30° E–0° W, 30° S–30° N), the consensus is that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, with 4–8 year cycles) is a dominant driver of the potentially predictable component, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, with 30–90 days cycles) is a dominant driver of the unpredictable component. In this study, the consensus is verified by using the Nino3-4 SST index and a popular MJO index. It is confirmed that Nino3-4 SST does indeed explain a significant part of the potential predictable component, but only limited variability of the unpredictable component is explained by the MJO index. This raises the question of whether the MJO is dominant in the variability of the unpredictable component of the precipitation, or the current MJO indexes do not represent MJO variability well.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/4/695predictabilityglobalseasonal precipitationENSOMJO |
| spellingShingle | Haibo Liu Xiaogu Zheng Jing Yuan Carsten S. Frederiksen Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO Atmosphere predictability global seasonal precipitation ENSO MJO |
| title | Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO |
| title_full | Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO |
| title_fullStr | Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO |
| title_short | Potential Predictability of Seasonal Global Precipitation Associated with ENSO and MJO |
| title_sort | potential predictability of seasonal global precipitation associated with enso and mjo |
| topic | predictability global seasonal precipitation ENSO MJO |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/4/695 |
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