Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.
<h4>Background</h4>The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COV...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233074 |
| _version_ | 1819035207720763392 |
|---|---|
| author | Vivek Verma Ramesh K Vishwakarma Anita Verma Dilip C Nath Hafiz T A Khan |
| author_facet | Vivek Verma Ramesh K Vishwakarma Anita Verma Dilip C Nath Hafiz T A Khan |
| author_sort | Vivek Verma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.<h4>Methods</h4>In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.<h4>Findings</h4>Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T07:45:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-422a808234014354a8b4c0288134219f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T07:45:58Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-422a808234014354a8b4c0288134219f2022-12-21T19:11:12ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01155e023307410.1371/journal.pone.0233074Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.Vivek VermaRamesh K VishwakarmaAnita VermaDilip C NathHafiz T A Khan<h4>Background</h4>The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.<h4>Methods</h4>In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.<h4>Findings</h4>Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233074 |
| spellingShingle | Vivek Verma Ramesh K Vishwakarma Anita Verma Dilip C Nath Hafiz T A Khan Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. PLoS ONE |
| title | Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. |
| title_full | Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. |
| title_fullStr | Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. |
| title_short | Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World. |
| title_sort | time to death approach in revealing chronicity and severity of covid 19 across the world |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233074 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vivekverma timetodeathapproachinrevealingchronicityandseverityofcovid19acrosstheworld AT rameshkvishwakarma timetodeathapproachinrevealingchronicityandseverityofcovid19acrosstheworld AT anitaverma timetodeathapproachinrevealingchronicityandseverityofcovid19acrosstheworld AT dilipcnath timetodeathapproachinrevealingchronicityandseverityofcovid19acrosstheworld AT hafiztakhan timetodeathapproachinrevealingchronicityandseverityofcovid19acrosstheworld |