Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires
Abstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an impor...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Geoscience Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40562-020-00168-2 |
| _version_ | 1828462992709124096 |
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| author | Guojian Wang Wenju Cai |
| author_facet | Guojian Wang Wenju Cai |
| author_sort | Guojian Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an important issue. Here, we examine known modes of tropical climate variability that contribute to droughts in Australia to provide a gauge. We find that a two-year consecutive concurrence of the 2018 and 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the 2018 and 2019 Central Pacific El Niño, with the former affecting Southeast Australia, and the latter influencing eastern and northeastern Australia, may explain many characteristics of the fires. Such consecutive events occurred only once in the observations since 1911. Using two generations of state-of-the-art climate models under historical and a business-as-usual emission scenario, we show that the frequency of such consecutive concurrences increases slightly, but rainfall anomalies during such events are stronger in the future climate, and there are drying trends across Australia. The impact of the stronger rainfall anomalies during such events under drying trends is likely to be exacerbated by greenhouse warming-induced rise in temperatures, making such events in the future even more extreme. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:47:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-422be8f521964770ba3307bf810c151a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2196-4092 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:47:13Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscience Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-422be8f521964770ba3307bf810c151a2022-12-22T01:23:24ZengSpringerOpenGeoscience Letters2196-40922020-11-01711910.1186/s40562-020-00168-2Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfiresGuojian Wang0Wenju Cai1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography–Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography–Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyAbstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an important issue. Here, we examine known modes of tropical climate variability that contribute to droughts in Australia to provide a gauge. We find that a two-year consecutive concurrence of the 2018 and 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the 2018 and 2019 Central Pacific El Niño, with the former affecting Southeast Australia, and the latter influencing eastern and northeastern Australia, may explain many characteristics of the fires. Such consecutive events occurred only once in the observations since 1911. Using two generations of state-of-the-art climate models under historical and a business-as-usual emission scenario, we show that the frequency of such consecutive concurrences increases slightly, but rainfall anomalies during such events are stronger in the future climate, and there are drying trends across Australia. The impact of the stronger rainfall anomalies during such events under drying trends is likely to be exacerbated by greenhouse warming-induced rise in temperatures, making such events in the future even more extreme.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40562-020-00168-22019/20 Australian bushfiresPositive Indian Ocean DipoleCentral Pacific El NiñoClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Guojian Wang Wenju Cai Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires Geoscience Letters 2019/20 Australian bushfires Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Central Pacific El Niño Climate change |
| title | Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires |
| title_full | Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires |
| title_fullStr | Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires |
| title_full_unstemmed | Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires |
| title_short | Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires |
| title_sort | two year consecutive concurrences of positive indian ocean dipole and central pacific el nino preconditioned the 2019 2020 australian black summer bushfires |
| topic | 2019/20 Australian bushfires Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Central Pacific El Niño Climate change |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40562-020-00168-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT guojianwang twoyearconsecutiveconcurrencesofpositiveindianoceandipoleandcentralpacificelninopreconditionedthe20192020australianblacksummerbushfires AT wenjucai twoyearconsecutiveconcurrencesofpositiveindianoceandipoleandcentralpacificelninopreconditionedthe20192020australianblacksummerbushfires |