Conditions of formation of high-water flood and flood forecast on the river Abakan
The relevance of the work is caused by climate change and increase in frequency of occurrence of dangerous hydrological phenomena on the rivers of the southern Siberian mountains. As a consequence the social and economic damage grows. The aim of the research is to analyze the conditions of formation...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Tomsk Polytechnic University
2016-12-01
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| Series: | Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://izvestiya-tpu.ru/archive/article/view/1816 |
| Summary: | The relevance of the work is caused by climate change and increase in frequency of occurrence of dangerous hydrological phenomena on the rivers of the southern Siberian mountains. As a consequence the social and economic damage grows. The aim of the research is to analyze the conditions of formation of spring flood high water content on the river Abakan, to identify hydro-climatic laws as a basis for predicting the probability of formation of extremely high flow rates. Methods: complex geographical and hydrometeorological analysis, identification of prognostic data dependencies of long-term meteorological observations using the methods of mathematical statistics. Results. The authors have revealed four types of the tide of spring flood high water content (probability is less than 33,3 %), which differ in the degree of danger to human settlements and industrial facilities on the banks of river Abakan. The main factors of the formation of the flood high water content tide are the following: 1) increased amount of winter precipitation - at average the sum of rainfall catchment from November to March is 10 % above the norm; 2) abundant, mainly liquid, April precipitation. The amount of precipitation in April, according to the data of weather stations Neozhidanny and Tashtyp, is above normal by 25 and 50 %, respectively. The authors proposed the technique of flood prediction based on searching for the so-called «Extremality flood factor». |
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| ISSN: | 2500-1019 2413-1830 |