Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974
Our new explanation of the extraordinary clustered occurrence in OECD countries of 18 national road fatality maxima during the 5 years 1970−1974 consists in adding the variable ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP to a basic equation specification already containing GDP PER CAPITA. The former acts as proxy...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Maximum Academic Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Emergency Management Science and Technology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/EMST-2023-0006 |
| _version_ | 1797655434466689024 |
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| author | Marc Gaudry Lasse Fridstrøm |
| author_facet | Marc Gaudry Lasse Fridstrøm |
| author_sort | Marc Gaudry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Our new explanation of the extraordinary clustered occurrence in OECD countries of 18 national road fatality maxima during the 5 years 1970−1974 consists in adding the variable ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP to a basic equation specification already containing GDP PER CAPITA. The former acts as proxy for the ratio of total (intermediate and final) to final activity in the Economy. Tests of that additional factor, which peaks naturally during the period 1970−1974, are carried out using a partial DRAG-type road safety model formulation developed in 2002 by Marc Gaudry and Stéphane Gelgoot with a dozen core variables. This choice then allows for: (i) a multinational sample of 13 OECD country 1965−1999 series extracted from the public MAYNARD-DRAG database; (ii) a decomposition of their national safety outcomes (Injured and Killed victims) as products of the frequency of bodily injury Accidents by their severity (Morbidity and Mortality); (iii) an estimation of these five equations with flexible Box-Cox forms taking autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of errors into account with the also public LEVEL algorithm of TRIO. Results from the addition of the new indicator turn out to be fully consistent with the proposed new hypothesis that the ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP complements GDP PER CAPITA as key road risk generator. Overall, latent intermediate economic output de-industrialization of the OECD to less economically developed countries is shown to be a shared common phenomenon implying delocalization not only of road victims but of other negative externalities of intermediate economic production, such as CO2 emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:14:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-424e4da2ab2d4b3a9f16c55f9d5dc28a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2832-448X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:14:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Maximum Academic Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emergency Management Science and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-424e4da2ab2d4b3a9f16c55f9d5dc28a2023-10-20T03:42:57ZengMaximum Academic PressEmergency Management Science and Technology2832-448X2023-01-013112310.48130/EMST-2023-0006EMST-2023-0006Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974Marc Gaudry0Lasse Fridstrøm1Département de sciences économiques et Agora Jules Dupuit (AJD), Université de Montréal, Montréal, 3150 rue Jean-Brillant, H3T 1N8, CanadaTransportøkonomisk institutt (Tø I), 0349 Oslo, NorwayOur new explanation of the extraordinary clustered occurrence in OECD countries of 18 national road fatality maxima during the 5 years 1970−1974 consists in adding the variable ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP to a basic equation specification already containing GDP PER CAPITA. The former acts as proxy for the ratio of total (intermediate and final) to final activity in the Economy. Tests of that additional factor, which peaks naturally during the period 1970−1974, are carried out using a partial DRAG-type road safety model formulation developed in 2002 by Marc Gaudry and Stéphane Gelgoot with a dozen core variables. This choice then allows for: (i) a multinational sample of 13 OECD country 1965−1999 series extracted from the public MAYNARD-DRAG database; (ii) a decomposition of their national safety outcomes (Injured and Killed victims) as products of the frequency of bodily injury Accidents by their severity (Morbidity and Mortality); (iii) an estimation of these five equations with flexible Box-Cox forms taking autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of errors into account with the also public LEVEL algorithm of TRIO. Results from the addition of the new indicator turn out to be fully consistent with the proposed new hypothesis that the ROAD TRAFFIC INTENSITY OF GDP complements GDP PER CAPITA as key road risk generator. Overall, latent intermediate economic output de-industrialization of the OECD to less economically developed countries is shown to be a shared common phenomenon implying delocalization not only of road victims but of other negative externalities of intermediate economic production, such as CO2 emissions.https://www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/EMST-2023-0006yearly national road deathsyearly national road injuries1970−1974 cluster of national road death maximathe matterhorn puzzleroad traffic intensity of gdpfatality intensity of road trafficsmeed's model of yearly national road fatalitiesbox-cox transformationsnon spherical residual errorseuropean union (eu) road safety targetssociété de l'assurance automobile du québec (saaq) studies. |
| spellingShingle | Marc Gaudry Lasse Fridstrøm Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 Emergency Management Science and Technology yearly national road deaths yearly national road injuries 1970−1974 cluster of national road death maxima the matterhorn puzzle road traffic intensity of gdp fatality intensity of road traffic smeed's model of yearly national road fatalities box-cox transformations non spherical residual errors european union (eu) road safety targets société de l'assurance automobile du québec (saaq) studies. |
| title | Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 |
| title_full | Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 |
| title_fullStr | Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 |
| title_short | Road traffic intensity of GDP and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970−1974 |
| title_sort | road traffic intensity of gdp and the explanation of national peaks of yearly road fatalities and of their clustering in 1970 1974 |
| topic | yearly national road deaths yearly national road injuries 1970−1974 cluster of national road death maxima the matterhorn puzzle road traffic intensity of gdp fatality intensity of road traffic smeed's model of yearly national road fatalities box-cox transformations non spherical residual errors european union (eu) road safety targets société de l'assurance automobile du québec (saaq) studies. |
| url | https://www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/EMST-2023-0006 |
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