Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana
In this paper, Covid-19 patients with self-immunity is incorporated in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) model is applied to describe the epidemiology of Covid-19 infection in Ghana. Based on data on the epidemiology of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana, we observed that,...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific African |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227621003719 |
| _version_ | 1819018059256430592 |
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| author | Benedict Barnes Joseph Ackora-Prah Francis Ohene Boateng Leticia Amanor |
| author_facet | Benedict Barnes Joseph Ackora-Prah Francis Ohene Boateng Leticia Amanor |
| author_sort | Benedict Barnes |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, Covid-19 patients with self-immunity is incorporated in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) model is applied to describe the epidemiology of Covid-19 infection in Ghana. Based on data on the epidemiology of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana, we observed that, on an average, three persons contract the Covid-19 infection from an infected person daily based using the basic reproductive number (Ro) derived from the SEIQR model. In addition, the threshold condition for the long term stability of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana is derived from this model. Based on the Dulac criterion, it was observed that for a long period of time the epidemiology of Covid-19 in Ghana will be under control. Again, we observed that both the transmission rate natural death rate of a person in the various classes mostly influence the spread of Covid-19 infection followed by the exposed rate from exposure class to the infected class, then the rate at which an infected person is quarantined and finally, the rate at an exposed person is quarantined. On the other hand, the rate at which an exposed person recovers from his/her have least influence on the spread of Covid-19 infection in the country. Nevertheless, the rates of birth, transmission of Covid-19 infection to a susceptible person, exposure to Covid-19 infection and Covid-19 patient who is quarantined by the facilities provided by the Ghana Health Service (GHS) are in direct relationship with Ro. However, the rates at which a quarantiner dies from a Covid-19 infection, an infected person dies from a Covid-19 infection, natural death from each class and the recoveries from an infected class, exposed class and quarantined class are in relationship with Ro. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:13:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4290a81d55174b539a416a2fa5ca6882 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-2276 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T03:13:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific African |
| spelling | doaj.art-4290a81d55174b539a416a2fa5ca68822022-12-21T19:17:55ZengElsevierScientific African2468-22762022-03-0115e01070Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in GhanaBenedict Barnes0Joseph Ackora-Prah1Francis Ohene Boateng2Leticia Amanor3Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, GhanaDepartment of Mathematics Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development, Kumasi, GhanaDepartment of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, GhanaIn this paper, Covid-19 patients with self-immunity is incorporated in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) model is applied to describe the epidemiology of Covid-19 infection in Ghana. Based on data on the epidemiology of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana, we observed that, on an average, three persons contract the Covid-19 infection from an infected person daily based using the basic reproductive number (Ro) derived from the SEIQR model. In addition, the threshold condition for the long term stability of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana is derived from this model. Based on the Dulac criterion, it was observed that for a long period of time the epidemiology of Covid-19 in Ghana will be under control. Again, we observed that both the transmission rate natural death rate of a person in the various classes mostly influence the spread of Covid-19 infection followed by the exposed rate from exposure class to the infected class, then the rate at which an infected person is quarantined and finally, the rate at an exposed person is quarantined. On the other hand, the rate at which an exposed person recovers from his/her have least influence on the spread of Covid-19 infection in the country. Nevertheless, the rates of birth, transmission of Covid-19 infection to a susceptible person, exposure to Covid-19 infection and Covid-19 patient who is quarantined by the facilities provided by the Ghana Health Service (GHS) are in direct relationship with Ro. However, the rates at which a quarantiner dies from a Covid-19 infection, an infected person dies from a Covid-19 infection, natural death from each class and the recoveries from an infected class, exposed class and quarantined class are in relationship with Ro.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246822762100371946B3944B56 |
| spellingShingle | Benedict Barnes Joseph Ackora-Prah Francis Ohene Boateng Leticia Amanor Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana Scientific African 46B39 44B56 |
| title | Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana |
| title_full | Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana |
| title_short | Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana |
| title_sort | mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of covid 19 infection in ghana |
| topic | 46B39 44B56 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227621003719 |
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