Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa
Abstract Background Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-014-0617-0 |
| _version_ | 1797811744076201984 |
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| author | Nicky McCreesh Grigory Nikulin Mark Booth |
| author_facet | Nicky McCreesh Grigory Nikulin Mark Booth |
| author_sort | Nicky McCreesh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations. Methods We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years. Results Baseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years’ time. Conclusions Temperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:28:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-429106bc398248a5881f1e3f824b1f56 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:28:13Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj.art-429106bc398248a5881f1e3f824b1f562023-06-04T11:14:46ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052015-01-01811910.1186/s13071-014-0617-0Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern AfricaNicky McCreesh0Grigory Nikulin1Mark Booth2School of Medicine, Pharmacy and Health, Durham UniversitySwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby CentreSchool of Medicine, Pharmacy and Health, Durham UniversityAbstract Background Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations. Methods We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years. Results Baseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years’ time. Conclusions Temperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-014-0617-0SchistosomiasisBiomphalariaMalacologyClimate changeDisease modellingAfrica |
| spellingShingle | Nicky McCreesh Grigory Nikulin Mark Booth Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa Parasites & Vectors Schistosomiasis Biomphalaria Malacology Climate change Disease modelling Africa |
| title | Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa |
| title_full | Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa |
| title_short | Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa |
| title_sort | predicting the effects of climate change on schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern africa |
| topic | Schistosomiasis Biomphalaria Malacology Climate change Disease modelling Africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-014-0617-0 |
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