Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants
This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Energy Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723000677 |
| _version_ | 1827931807777030144 |
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| author | L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez Claudio Monteiro Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado |
| author_facet | L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez Claudio Monteiro Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado |
| author_sort | L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts obtained from a Numerical Weather Prediction model and variables related to the sun position for future instants. The proposed models were satisfactorily applied to the case study of a real-life PV plant in Portugal. Probabilistic benchmark models were also applied to the same case study and their forecasting results compared with the ones of the proposed models. The computer results obtained with these proposed models achieve better point and probabilistic forecasting evaluation indexes values than the ones obtained with the benchmark models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:58:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-42962c0b19ac40c2becf5f18631bc679 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-4847 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:58:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-42962c0b19ac40c2becf5f18631bc6792023-06-07T04:48:47ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472023-05-019495502Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plantsL. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez0Claudio Monteiro1Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado2Electrical Engineering Department, University of La Rioja, Logroño 26004, Spain; Corresponding author.FEUP, Faculdade Engenharia Universidade do Porto, Porto 4200-465, PortugalElectrical Engineering Department, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50018, SpainThis article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models consists of data of hourly weather forecasts obtained from a Numerical Weather Prediction model and variables related to the sun position for future instants. The proposed models were satisfactorily applied to the case study of a real-life PV plant in Portugal. Probabilistic benchmark models were also applied to the same case study and their forecasting results compared with the ones of the proposed models. The computer results obtained with these proposed models achieve better point and probabilistic forecasting evaluation indexes values than the ones obtained with the benchmark models.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723000677Short-term forecastingPV power generationProbabilistic forecastingPhotovoltaic |
| spellingShingle | L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez Claudio Monteiro Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants Energy Reports Short-term forecasting PV power generation Probabilistic forecasting Photovoltaic |
| title | Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| title_full | Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| title_fullStr | Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| title_short | Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| title_sort | short term probabilistic forecasting models using beta distributions for photovoltaic plants |
| topic | Short-term forecasting PV power generation Probabilistic forecasting Photovoltaic |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723000677 |
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