Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
Abstract Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air‐conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning o...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002434 |
| _version_ | 1818002004216119296 |
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| author | Renee Obringer Roshanak Nateghi Debora Maia‐Silva Sayanti Mukherjee Vineeth CR Douglas Brent McRoberts Rohini Kumar |
| author_facet | Renee Obringer Roshanak Nateghi Debora Maia‐Silva Sayanti Mukherjee Vineeth CR Douglas Brent McRoberts Rohini Kumar |
| author_sort | Renee Obringer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air‐conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state‐of‐the‐art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.—up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate‐induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (±4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million “household‐days” (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0°C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:40:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-42e766cdef2745269bff1d1e5d385117 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:40:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-42e766cdef2745269bff1d1e5d3851172022-12-22T02:14:32ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-01-01101n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002434Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming ClimateRenee Obringer0Roshanak Nateghi1Debora Maia‐Silva2Sayanti Mukherjee3Vineeth CR4Douglas Brent McRoberts5Rohini Kumar6National Socio‐Environmental Synthesis Center University of Maryland Annapolis MD USASchool of Industrial Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette IN USAEnvironmental and Ecological Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette IN USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering University at Buffalo‐The State University of NY Buffalo NY USACequence Security, Inc. Sunnyvale CA USADepartment of Geography Ohio State University Columbus OH USADepartment Computational Hydrosystems Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research‐UFZ Leipzig GermanyAbstract Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air‐conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state‐of‐the‐art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.—up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate‐induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (±4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million “household‐days” (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0°C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002434 |
| spellingShingle | Renee Obringer Roshanak Nateghi Debora Maia‐Silva Sayanti Mukherjee Vineeth CR Douglas Brent McRoberts Rohini Kumar Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate Earth's Future |
| title | Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate |
| title_full | Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate |
| title_fullStr | Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate |
| title_short | Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate |
| title_sort | implications of increasing household air conditioning use across the united states under a warming climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002434 |
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