Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA
This study investigated the potential impact of soil moisture perturbations on the statistical spread of an ensemble forecast for three different synoptic events during the summer of 2006. Soil moisture was perturbed from a control simulation to generate a 12 member ensemble with six drier and six m...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Stockholm University Press
2012-02-01
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| Series: | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/17156/pdf_1 |
| _version_ | 1811291809030078464 |
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| author | Arturo I. Quintanar Rezaul Mahmood |
| author_facet | Arturo I. Quintanar Rezaul Mahmood |
| author_sort | Arturo I. Quintanar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigated the potential impact of soil moisture perturbations on the statistical spread of an ensemble forecast for three different synoptic events during the summer of 2006. Soil moisture was perturbed from a control simulation to generate a 12 member ensemble with six drier and six moister soils. The impacts on the near-surface atmospheric conditions and on precipitation were analysed. It was found, as previous studies have confirmed, that soil moisture can change the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and of the overlying circulation. It was found that regardless of the conditions in synoptic forcing, temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind field exhibited a spatial correlation coefficient (R) close to one with respect to the control simulation. Vertical velocity, however, showed a marked decrease in R down to 0.4 as the precipitation activity increased. For vertical velocity, however, this quantity grew to near 1.0 consistent with R near zero and standard deviations very close to that of the control. These results suggested a more complex picture in which soil moisture perturbations played a major role in modifying precipitation and the near-surface circulation but did not broaden the statistical spread of trajectories in phase space of all variables. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T04:34:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-43844119b35946199afedf688cc04f07 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0280-6495 1600-0870 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T04:34:59Z |
| publishDate | 2012-02-01 |
| publisher | Stockholm University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| spelling | doaj.art-43844119b35946199afedf688cc04f072022-12-22T03:02:11ZengStockholm University PressTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography0280-64951600-08702012-02-0164011510.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17156Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USAArturo I. QuintanarRezaul MahmoodThis study investigated the potential impact of soil moisture perturbations on the statistical spread of an ensemble forecast for three different synoptic events during the summer of 2006. Soil moisture was perturbed from a control simulation to generate a 12 member ensemble with six drier and six moister soils. The impacts on the near-surface atmospheric conditions and on precipitation were analysed. It was found, as previous studies have confirmed, that soil moisture can change the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and of the overlying circulation. It was found that regardless of the conditions in synoptic forcing, temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind field exhibited a spatial correlation coefficient (R) close to one with respect to the control simulation. Vertical velocity, however, showed a marked decrease in R down to 0.4 as the precipitation activity increased. For vertical velocity, however, this quantity grew to near 1.0 consistent with R near zero and standard deviations very close to that of the control. These results suggested a more complex picture in which soil moisture perturbations played a major role in modifying precipitation and the near-surface circulation but did not broaden the statistical spread of trajectories in phase space of all variables.http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/17156/pdf_1soil moistureensemble forecastatmosphere-soil interactionsspatial correlationpattern correlation |
| spellingShingle | Arturo I. Quintanar Rezaul Mahmood Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography soil moisture ensemble forecast atmosphere-soil interactions spatial correlation pattern correlation |
| title | Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA |
| title_full | Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA |
| title_fullStr | Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA |
| title_short | Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA |
| title_sort | ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid south and neighbouring mid western region of the usa |
| topic | soil moisture ensemble forecast atmosphere-soil interactions spatial correlation pattern correlation |
| url | http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/17156/pdf_1 |
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