Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century
The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1...
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PeerJ Inc.
2016-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/1630.pdf |
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| author | Chunrong Mi Huettmann Falk Yumin Guo |
| author_facet | Chunrong Mi Huettmann Falk Yumin Guo |
| author_sort | Chunrong Mi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:29:50Z |
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| id | doaj.art-43b043d2ca134ebf99ae24c35ba3310a |
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| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:29:50Z |
| publishDate | 2016-02-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-43b043d2ca134ebf99ae24c35ba3310a2023-12-03T11:06:56ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592016-02-014e163010.7717/peerj.1630Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st centuryChunrong Mi0Huettmann Falk1Yumin Guo2College of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaEWHALE Lab, Department of Biology and Wildlife, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK, USACollege of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaThe rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change.https://peerj.com/articles/1630.pdfClimate changeSpecies distribution models (SDMs)Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii)Random ForestChina |
| spellingShingle | Chunrong Mi Huettmann Falk Yumin Guo Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century PeerJ Climate change Species distribution models (SDMs) Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) Random Forest China |
| title | Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century |
| title_full | Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century |
| title_short | Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century |
| title_sort | climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for great bustards otis tarda dybowskii in china for the 21st century |
| topic | Climate change Species distribution models (SDMs) Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) Random Forest China |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/1630.pdf |
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