Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions
This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression mode...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000905010&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1817984252923346944 |
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| author | Zhixue Li Yan Ma Ying Xu |
| author_facet | Zhixue Li Yan Ma Ying Xu |
| author_sort | Zhixue Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T23:43:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-43bfdb2449834d1bbb48a9f936182b59 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-4464 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T23:43:17Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
| spelling | doaj.art-43bfdb2449834d1bbb48a9f936182b592022-12-22T02:24:25ZengEscola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo CruzCadernos de Saúde Pública1678-44642022-10-0138910.1590/0102-311xen050622Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictionsZhixue Lihttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0136-7552Yan Mahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9735-5868Ying Xuhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8246-7637This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000905010&tlng=enLung NeoplasmsCost of IllnessAir Pollution |
| spellingShingle | Zhixue Li Yan Ma Ying Xu Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions Cadernos de Saúde Pública Lung Neoplasms Cost of Illness Air Pollution |
| title | Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| title_full | Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| title_fullStr | Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| title_short | Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| title_sort | burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the chinese female population trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
| topic | Lung Neoplasms Cost of Illness Air Pollution |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000905010&tlng=en |
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