Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea
The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems in the world due to the variety and severity of cumulative impacts faced, including high climate risk. Species distributions are expected to track climate niches in response to warming, with meridionalization (i.e. northern spread of nat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24001985 |
| _version_ | 1797213443948806144 |
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| author | Marina Sanz-Martín Manuel Hidalgo Patricia Puerta Jorge García Molinos Marina Zamanillo Isaac Brito-Morales José Manuel González-Irusta Antonio Esteban Antonio Punzón Encarnación García-Rodríguez Miguel Vivas Lucía López-López |
| author_facet | Marina Sanz-Martín Manuel Hidalgo Patricia Puerta Jorge García Molinos Marina Zamanillo Isaac Brito-Morales José Manuel González-Irusta Antonio Esteban Antonio Punzón Encarnación García-Rodríguez Miguel Vivas Lucía López-López |
| author_sort | Marina Sanz-Martín |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems in the world due to the variety and severity of cumulative impacts faced, including high climate risk. Species distributions are expected to track climate niches in response to warming, with meridionalization (i.e. northern spread of native warm-water species) as a common documented response. However, the Mediterranean environment is also highly heterogeneous and structured at regional scales, constraining generalized species responses. Based on long-term monitoring data of demersal communities in the Western Mediterranean (1994–2019), we calculated seven indicators characterizing the space–time patterns of multiple species distributions and their temporal rates of change. Simultaneously, we computed climate velocity based on the space–time variation of sea surface temperature. Subsequently, we modeled the space–time patterns of species distributions as response to climate velocity, taking into account the species’ temperature and depth preferences. Contrary to the generalized northward expectation as a consequence of communities’ meridionalization, a large number of species have shifted their distributions toward the south and southwest to higher and medium r climate velocity values and averaged warmer conditions. In general, cold-water species with an affinity for low and moderate mean temperature and wide and narrow temperature ranges were better at tracking climate velocity. Furthermore, species distributed over the continental shelf shifted towards shallower and inshore waters in response to high climate velocity, as opposed to shallower waters further away and contrary to a priori expectations of shifts towards deeper waters, following the bathymetric gradient. The ranges of dispersion and the spatial heterogeneity of these species expanded, although not explicitly in response to climate velocity, suggesting additional synergistic drivers. Our results confirm the importance of climate velocity as a useful metric for predicting species responses at sub-regional levels and provide information on expected species responses at the scales required for embracing regional to local management measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:58:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-43fe5c72c2c444599566567ebc7b2793 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:58:22Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-43fe5c72c2c444599566567ebc7b27932024-04-12T04:44:29ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2024-03-01160111741Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean SeaMarina Sanz-Martín0Manuel Hidalgo1Patricia Puerta2Jorge García Molinos3Marina Zamanillo4Isaac Brito-Morales5José Manuel González-Irusta6Antonio Esteban7Antonio Punzón8Encarnación García-Rodríguez9Miguel Vivas10Lucía López-López11Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears, Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas (GRECO), Palma, Spain; Corresponding author.Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears, Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas (GRECO), Palma, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears, Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas (GRECO), Palma, SpainArctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, JapanInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears, Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas (GRECO), Palma, SpainBetty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA; Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USAInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Santander, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia, San Pedro del Pinatar, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Santander, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia, San Pedro del Pinatar, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia, San Pedro del Pinatar, SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears, Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas (GRECO), Palma, Spain; Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Santander, SpainThe Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems in the world due to the variety and severity of cumulative impacts faced, including high climate risk. Species distributions are expected to track climate niches in response to warming, with meridionalization (i.e. northern spread of native warm-water species) as a common documented response. However, the Mediterranean environment is also highly heterogeneous and structured at regional scales, constraining generalized species responses. Based on long-term monitoring data of demersal communities in the Western Mediterranean (1994–2019), we calculated seven indicators characterizing the space–time patterns of multiple species distributions and their temporal rates of change. Simultaneously, we computed climate velocity based on the space–time variation of sea surface temperature. Subsequently, we modeled the space–time patterns of species distributions as response to climate velocity, taking into account the species’ temperature and depth preferences. Contrary to the generalized northward expectation as a consequence of communities’ meridionalization, a large number of species have shifted their distributions toward the south and southwest to higher and medium r climate velocity values and averaged warmer conditions. In general, cold-water species with an affinity for low and moderate mean temperature and wide and narrow temperature ranges were better at tracking climate velocity. Furthermore, species distributed over the continental shelf shifted towards shallower and inshore waters in response to high climate velocity, as opposed to shallower waters further away and contrary to a priori expectations of shifts towards deeper waters, following the bathymetric gradient. The ranges of dispersion and the spatial heterogeneity of these species expanded, although not explicitly in response to climate velocity, suggesting additional synergistic drivers. Our results confirm the importance of climate velocity as a useful metric for predicting species responses at sub-regional levels and provide information on expected species responses at the scales required for embracing regional to local management measures.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24001985Climate velocityDemersal speciesMediterranean SeaSpatial indicatorsResilient responsesSub-regional scale |
| spellingShingle | Marina Sanz-Martín Manuel Hidalgo Patricia Puerta Jorge García Molinos Marina Zamanillo Isaac Brito-Morales José Manuel González-Irusta Antonio Esteban Antonio Punzón Encarnación García-Rodríguez Miguel Vivas Lucía López-López Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea Ecological Indicators Climate velocity Demersal species Mediterranean Sea Spatial indicators Resilient responses Sub-regional scale |
| title | Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea |
| title_full | Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea |
| title_fullStr | Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea |
| title_short | Climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the Western Mediterranean Sea |
| title_sort | climate velocity drives unexpected southward patterns of species shifts in the western mediterranean sea |
| topic | Climate velocity Demersal species Mediterranean Sea Spatial indicators Resilient responses Sub-regional scale |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24001985 |
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