Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/853/2018/hess-22-853-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818350922387947520 |
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| author | M. C. Rogelis M. Werner M. Werner |
| author_facet | M. C. Rogelis M. Werner M. Werner |
| author_sort | M. C. Rogelis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that bias correction can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The paper focuses on the comparison of streamflows obtained from the post-processed precipitation forecasts, particularly the comparison of ensemble forecasts and their potential in providing skilful flood forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce precipitation forecasts that are post-processed and used to drive a hydrologic model. Discharge forecasts obtained from the
hydrological model are used to assess the skill of the WRF model. The results show that post-processed WRF precipitation adds value to the flood early warning system when compared to zero-precipitation forecasts, although the precipitation forecast used in this analysis showed little added value when compared to climatology. However, the reduction of biases obtained from the post-processed ensembles show the potential of this method and model to provide usable precipitation forecasts in tropical mountainous watersheds. The need for more
detailed evaluation of the WRF model in the study area is highlighted, particularly the identification of the most suitable parameterisation,
due to the inability of the model to adequately represent the convective precipitation found in the study area. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T18:29:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4403516ce312498d91790438cb798d17 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T18:29:32Z |
| publishDate | 2018-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-4403516ce312498d91790438cb798d172022-12-21T23:35:31ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382018-02-012285387010.5194/hess-22-853-2018Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areasM. C. Rogelis0M. Werner1M. Werner2UNESCO-IHE, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the NetherlandsUNESCO-IHE, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the NetherlandsDeltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the NetherlandsNumerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that bias correction can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The paper focuses on the comparison of streamflows obtained from the post-processed precipitation forecasts, particularly the comparison of ensemble forecasts and their potential in providing skilful flood forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce precipitation forecasts that are post-processed and used to drive a hydrologic model. Discharge forecasts obtained from the hydrological model are used to assess the skill of the WRF model. The results show that post-processed WRF precipitation adds value to the flood early warning system when compared to zero-precipitation forecasts, although the precipitation forecast used in this analysis showed little added value when compared to climatology. However, the reduction of biases obtained from the post-processed ensembles show the potential of this method and model to provide usable precipitation forecasts in tropical mountainous watersheds. The need for more detailed evaluation of the WRF model in the study area is highlighted, particularly the identification of the most suitable parameterisation, due to the inability of the model to adequately represent the convective precipitation found in the study area.https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/853/2018/hess-22-853-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. C. Rogelis M. Werner M. Werner Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| title_full | Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| title_fullStr | Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| title_short | Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| title_sort | streamflow forecasts from wrf precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/853/2018/hess-22-853-2018.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mcrogelis streamflowforecastsfromwrfprecipitationforfloodearlywarninginmountaintropicalareas AT mwerner streamflowforecastsfromwrfprecipitationforfloodearlywarninginmountaintropicalareas AT mwerner streamflowforecastsfromwrfprecipitationforfloodearlywarninginmountaintropicalareas |