Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Objectives The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korean Society for Preventive Medicine
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-076.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811340286992842752 |
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| author | Yousef Alimohamadi Maryam Taghdir Mojtaba Sepandi |
| author_facet | Yousef Alimohamadi Maryam Taghdir Mojtaba Sepandi |
| author_sort | Yousef Alimohamadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: “COVID-19” and “basic reproduction number” or “R0.” The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. Results The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:39:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-447afe087f8a445281b02d1b3266821e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1975-8375 2233-4521 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:39:40Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | Korean Society for Preventive Medicine |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-447afe087f8a445281b02d1b3266821e2022-12-22T02:34:46ZengKorean Society for Preventive MedicineJournal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health1975-83752233-45212020-05-0153315115710.3961/jpmph.20.0762072Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysisYousef Alimohamadi0Maryam Taghdir1Mojtaba Sepandi2 Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranObjectives The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: “COVID-19” and “basic reproduction number” or “R0.” The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. Results The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-076.pdfbasic reproduction numbercovid-19meta-analysispublic healthoutbreak |
| spellingShingle | Yousef Alimohamadi Maryam Taghdir Mojtaba Sepandi Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health basic reproduction number covid-19 meta-analysis public health outbreak |
| title | Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis |
| title_full | Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis |
| title_fullStr | Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis |
| title_short | Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis |
| title_sort | estimate of the basic reproduction number for covid 19 a systematic review and meta analysis |
| topic | basic reproduction number covid-19 meta-analysis public health outbreak |
| url | http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-076.pdf |
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