Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. Epi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-03-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023/full |
| _version_ | 1797869186510225408 |
|---|---|
| author | David E. Singh Maria-Cristina Marinescu Miguel Guzmán-Merino Christian Durán Concepción Delgado-Sanz Concepción Delgado-Sanz Diana Gomez-Barroso Diana Gomez-Barroso Jesus Carretero |
| author_facet | David E. Singh Maria-Cristina Marinescu Miguel Guzmán-Merino Christian Durán Concepción Delgado-Sanz Concepción Delgado-Sanz Diana Gomez-Barroso Diana Gomez-Barroso Jesus Carretero |
| author_sort | David E. Singh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:07:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4487f22b900a41c185cad7ea549fb1cc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:07:36Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-4487f22b900a41c185cad7ea549fb1cc2023-03-16T16:44:35ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652021-03-01910.3389/fpubh.2021.636023636023Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan AreaDavid E. Singh0Maria-Cristina Marinescu1Miguel Guzmán-Merino2Christian Durán3Concepción Delgado-Sanz4Concepción Delgado-Sanz5Diana Gomez-Barroso6Diana Gomez-Barroso7Jesus Carretero8Department Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, SpainDepartment Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, SpainDepartment Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, SpainCIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainNational Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, SpainCIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainNational Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, SpainDepartment Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, SpainThis work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023/fullCOVID-19simulationsocial distancingmitigation policiesface mask |
| spellingShingle | David E. Singh Maria-Cristina Marinescu Miguel Guzmán-Merino Christian Durán Concepción Delgado-Sanz Concepción Delgado-Sanz Diana Gomez-Barroso Diana Gomez-Barroso Jesus Carretero Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 simulation social distancing mitigation policies face mask |
| title | Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| title_full | Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| title_short | Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area |
| title_sort | simulation of covid 19 propagation scenarios in the madrid metropolitan area |
| topic | COVID-19 simulation social distancing mitigation policies face mask |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidesingh simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT mariacristinamarinescu simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT miguelguzmanmerino simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT christianduran simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT concepciondelgadosanz simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT concepciondelgadosanz simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT dianagomezbarroso simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT dianagomezbarroso simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea AT jesuscarretero simulationofcovid19propagationscenariosinthemadridmetropolitanarea |