Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb397 |
| _version_ | 1797747785526673408 |
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| author | A A Akinsanola G J Kooperman K A Reed A G Pendergrass W M Hannah |
| author_facet | A A Akinsanola G J Kooperman K A Reed A G Pendergrass W M Hannah |
| author_sort | A A Akinsanola |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic ( i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-44e0a6700662415e8962c3e5c19b18a1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:34Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-44e0a6700662415e8962c3e5c19b18a12023-08-09T14:55:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010407810.1088/1748-9326/abb397Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulationsA A Akinsanola0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0192-0082G J Kooperman1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3174-4913K A Reed2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3741-7080A G Pendergrass3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2542-1461W M Hannah4Department of Geography, University of Georgia , Athens, GA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography, University of Georgia , Athens, GA, United States of AmericaSchool of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University , Stony Brook, NY, United States of AmericaClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, Colorado, United States of AmericaAtmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory , Livermore, California, United States of AmericaQuantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic ( i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb397climate changeglobal warmingmultimodel ensemble meanETCCDI |
| spellingShingle | A A Akinsanola G J Kooperman K A Reed A G Pendergrass W M Hannah Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations Environmental Research Letters climate change global warming multimodel ensemble mean ETCCDI |
| title | Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations |
| title_full | Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations |
| title_fullStr | Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations |
| title_short | Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations |
| title_sort | projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the united states in cmip6 simulations |
| topic | climate change global warming multimodel ensemble mean ETCCDI |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb397 |
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