Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks
Three models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth <i>Dendrolimus sibiricus</i> Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as a population of the pine looper...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4212 |
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| author | Vladislav Soukhovolsky Anton Kovalev Yulia Ivanova Olga Tarasova |
| author_facet | Vladislav Soukhovolsky Anton Kovalev Yulia Ivanova Olga Tarasova |
| author_sort | Vladislav Soukhovolsky |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Three models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth <i>Dendrolimus sibiricus</i> Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as a population of the pine looper <i>Bupalus piniarius</i> L. in Thuringia, Germany. The first model (autoregression) characterizes the mechanism where current population density is dependent on population densities in previous <i>k</i> years. The second model considers an outbreak as analogous to a first-order phase transition in physical systems and characterizes the outbreak as a transition through a potential barrier from a low-density state to a high-density state. The third model treats an outbreak as an effect of stochastic resonance influenced by a cyclical factor such as solar activity and the “noise” of weather parameters. The discussion focuses on the prediction effectiveness of abundance dynamics and outbreak development for each model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:39:37Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:39:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
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| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-45167a2ae2ea45369a2f0796be6065472023-11-19T14:44:54ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902023-10-011119421210.3390/math11194212Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect OutbreaksVladislav Soukhovolsky0Anton Kovalev1Yulia Ivanova2Olga Tarasova3V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, RussiaKrasnoyarsk Scientific Center SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, RussiaInstitute of Biophysics SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, RussiaDepartment of Ecology and Nature Management, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk 660041, RussiaThree models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth <i>Dendrolimus sibiricus</i> Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as a population of the pine looper <i>Bupalus piniarius</i> L. in Thuringia, Germany. The first model (autoregression) characterizes the mechanism where current population density is dependent on population densities in previous <i>k</i> years. The second model considers an outbreak as analogous to a first-order phase transition in physical systems and characterizes the outbreak as a transition through a potential barrier from a low-density state to a high-density state. The third model treats an outbreak as an effect of stochastic resonance influenced by a cyclical factor such as solar activity and the “noise” of weather parameters. The discussion focuses on the prediction effectiveness of abundance dynamics and outbreak development for each model.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4212forest insectpopulationpopulation dynamicspopulation outbreakmodelautoregression |
| spellingShingle | Vladislav Soukhovolsky Anton Kovalev Yulia Ivanova Olga Tarasova Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks Mathematics forest insect population population dynamics population outbreak model autoregression |
| title | Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks |
| title_full | Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks |
| title_short | Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks |
| title_sort | autoregression first order phase transition and stochastic resonance a comparison of three models for forest insect outbreaks |
| topic | forest insect population population dynamics population outbreak model autoregression |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4212 |
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