Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios
Socio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global-, national- and local-scale societal developments can influence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Climate Risk Management |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300469 |
| _version_ | 1818537983280676864 |
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| author | Bob Frame Judy Lawrence Anne-Gaelle Ausseil Andy Reisinger Adam Daigneault |
| author_facet | Bob Frame Judy Lawrence Anne-Gaelle Ausseil Andy Reisinger Adam Daigneault |
| author_sort | Bob Frame |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Socio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global-, national- and local-scale societal developments can influence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to adaptation and mitigation that alternative futures entail. However, SSPs are primarily defined for the global scale. If countries are to test their adaptation and mitigation options for robustness across plausible future socio-economic conditions, then SSPs require country-relevant detail to understand climate change risks at the national and local scales. New Zealand is used to illustrate how nationally relevant socio-economic scenarios, nested within SSPs can be developed to inform national- and local-scale studies of climate change impacts and their implications. Shared policy assumptions were developed, involving a mix of climate-specific and non-climate-specific policies, to demonstrate how international links and global-scale developments are critical locally—local choices may accelerate, reduce or even negate the impact of global trends for extended periods. The typology was then ‘tested’ by applying it in a local context. The research challenges observed in developing credible, salient and legitimate national-scale socio-economic scenarios include issues in developing scenarios across a multidisciplinary team. Finally, recommendations for adapting shared climate policy assumptions to produce national and local scenarios, and for assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of climate change adaptation options are presented. These include the need for: guidelines to embed national scenarios in global frameworks; a limit the number of plausible futures; inter-operability of models; an ability to work towards effective multi-disciplinary teams and integrative research; and the opportunity to involve participatory processes where feasible. Keywords: Scenarios, Socio-economic, Adaptation, Mitigation, Global, National |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T18:57:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4523315b19f640feb2a198324842bc89 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0963 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T18:57:44Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-4523315b19f640feb2a198324842bc892022-12-22T00:54:06ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632018-01-01213951Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenariosBob Frame0Judy Lawrence1Anne-Gaelle Ausseil2Andy Reisinger3Adam Daigneault4Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research New Zealand, PO Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand; Corresponding author.Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New ZealandManaaki Whenua – Landcare Research New Zealand, 86-90 Lambton Quay, Wellington, New ZealandNew Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Private Bag 11008, Palmerston North, New ZealandSchool of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USASocio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global-, national- and local-scale societal developments can influence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to adaptation and mitigation that alternative futures entail. However, SSPs are primarily defined for the global scale. If countries are to test their adaptation and mitigation options for robustness across plausible future socio-economic conditions, then SSPs require country-relevant detail to understand climate change risks at the national and local scales. New Zealand is used to illustrate how nationally relevant socio-economic scenarios, nested within SSPs can be developed to inform national- and local-scale studies of climate change impacts and their implications. Shared policy assumptions were developed, involving a mix of climate-specific and non-climate-specific policies, to demonstrate how international links and global-scale developments are critical locally—local choices may accelerate, reduce or even negate the impact of global trends for extended periods. The typology was then ‘tested’ by applying it in a local context. The research challenges observed in developing credible, salient and legitimate national-scale socio-economic scenarios include issues in developing scenarios across a multidisciplinary team. Finally, recommendations for adapting shared climate policy assumptions to produce national and local scenarios, and for assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of climate change adaptation options are presented. These include the need for: guidelines to embed national scenarios in global frameworks; a limit the number of plausible futures; inter-operability of models; an ability to work towards effective multi-disciplinary teams and integrative research; and the opportunity to involve participatory processes where feasible. Keywords: Scenarios, Socio-economic, Adaptation, Mitigation, Global, Nationalhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300469 |
| spellingShingle | Bob Frame Judy Lawrence Anne-Gaelle Ausseil Andy Reisinger Adam Daigneault Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios Climate Risk Management |
| title | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| title_full | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| title_short | Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| title_sort | adapting global shared socio economic pathways for national and local scenarios |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300469 |
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