Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods
This paper shows an example of the application of the estimation of the probability of a contaminant exceeding a specified maximum concentration (probability of exceedance, Pf) using first order (FORM) and second order (SORM) reliability methods for several initial concentrations and analysis times...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Associação Brasileira de Águas Subterrâneas
2017-05-01
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| Series: | Revista Águas Subterrâneas |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://aguassubterraneas.abas.org/asubterraneas/article/view/28803 |
| _version_ | 1818241215141773312 |
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| author | Vanessa Almeida de Godoy Gian Franco Napa-García |
| author_facet | Vanessa Almeida de Godoy Gian Franco Napa-García |
| author_sort | Vanessa Almeida de Godoy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper shows an example of the application of the estimation of the probability of a contaminant exceeding a specified maximum concentration (probability of exceedance, Pf) using first order (FORM) and second order (SORM) reliability methods for several initial concentrations and analysis times of 5 and 10 years. The validity of the results was evaluated comparing the obtained results of FORM and SORM with those of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). For the same initial concentration, Pf increased with increasing time. For both analysis times (5 and 10 years) and applied methods, Pf tends to increase with the increase in the initial concentration. The comparison between the values of Pf obtained with FORM and SORM and with SMC shows that from 50 μg/L of initial concentration SMC and FORM have very close Pf values. The values obtained with the SORM were close to those resulting from the SMC only for the initial concentrations of 50 and 100 μg/L. The proximity of the Pf values obtained with SMC and FORM indicate that the use of this reliability method is useful in obtaining the Pf, besides being a faster way than the SMC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T13:25:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4545d67c03f44772824e8ddff3dafdbe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0101-7004 2179-9784 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T13:25:47Z |
| publishDate | 2017-05-01 |
| publisher | Associação Brasileira de Águas Subterrâneas |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Águas Subterrâneas |
| spelling | doaj.art-4545d67c03f44772824e8ddff3dafdbe2022-12-22T00:23:10ZengAssociação Brasileira de Águas SubterrâneasRevista Águas Subterrâneas0101-70042179-97842017-05-0131211912910.14295/ras.v31i2.2880317172Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methodsVanessa Almeida de Godoy0Gian Franco Napa-García1Universidade de São Paulo, Departamento de GeotecniaInstituto Tecnológico ValeThis paper shows an example of the application of the estimation of the probability of a contaminant exceeding a specified maximum concentration (probability of exceedance, Pf) using first order (FORM) and second order (SORM) reliability methods for several initial concentrations and analysis times of 5 and 10 years. The validity of the results was evaluated comparing the obtained results of FORM and SORM with those of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). For the same initial concentration, Pf increased with increasing time. For both analysis times (5 and 10 years) and applied methods, Pf tends to increase with the increase in the initial concentration. The comparison between the values of Pf obtained with FORM and SORM and with SMC shows that from 50 μg/L of initial concentration SMC and FORM have very close Pf values. The values obtained with the SORM were close to those resulting from the SMC only for the initial concentrations of 50 and 100 μg/L. The proximity of the Pf values obtained with SMC and FORM indicate that the use of this reliability method is useful in obtaining the Pf, besides being a faster way than the SMC.https://aguassubterraneas.abas.org/asubterraneas/article/view/28803Transporte de contaminante. Probabilidade de excedência. FORM. SORM. SMC. |
| spellingShingle | Vanessa Almeida de Godoy Gian Franco Napa-García Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods Revista Águas Subterrâneas Transporte de contaminante. Probabilidade de excedência. FORM. SORM. SMC. |
| title | Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| title_full | Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| title_short | Probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| title_sort | probabilistic analysis of groundwater contamination using first and second order reliability methods |
| topic | Transporte de contaminante. Probabilidade de excedência. FORM. SORM. SMC. |
| url | https://aguassubterraneas.abas.org/asubterraneas/article/view/28803 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vanessaalmeidadegodoy probabilisticanalysisofgroundwatercontaminationusingfirstandsecondorderreliabilitymethods AT gianfranconapagarcia probabilisticanalysisofgroundwatercontaminationusingfirstandsecondorderreliabilitymethods |