Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study
Abstract Routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have significantly improved measles control over the past two decades in China. Progress towards eliminating measles currently faces multiple challenges as the infection age increases, and adult-targeted SIA strategies a...
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Nature Portfolio
2018-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34461-0 |
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| author | Ka Chun Chong Chi Zhang Katherine Min Jia Benny Chung Ying Zee Tongyong Luo Lei Wang Greta Chun Huen Tam Riyang Sun Maggie Haitian Wang Xuhua Guan |
| author_facet | Ka Chun Chong Chi Zhang Katherine Min Jia Benny Chung Ying Zee Tongyong Luo Lei Wang Greta Chun Huen Tam Riyang Sun Maggie Haitian Wang Xuhua Guan |
| author_sort | Ka Chun Chong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have significantly improved measles control over the past two decades in China. Progress towards eliminating measles currently faces multiple challenges as the infection age increases, and adult-targeted SIA strategies are being considered. This study developed an age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model using a recently published contact matrix to depict measles transmissions between individuals in seven age groups. Hubei, a high measles-incidence province in central China, was the selected setting. The baseline scenario was calibrated by fitting with the 2012–2015 age-stratified incidence data. SIAs targeting multiple age groups were simulated. Adult-targeted (>29 years) two-year SIA cycles produced the greatest annual incidence rate decrease, reducing incidences by half over a long timespan with 90% coverage levels. Incidences could remain below 10/100,000 until 2030 if SIAs were provided to individuals ≥6 years old with at least 50% coverage. These findings will help officials prioritize supplementary vaccination strategies. Public health officials in China should consider adult-to-adult transmissions and provide adult-targeted SIAs. Although officials have reported approximately 90% SIA coverage in the past, SIAs for the adult population should be provided on shorter intervals, particularly for the aging population with decreased immunity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T17:02:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-45525336f54f40209e06c5cff3e6d303 |
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| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T17:02:08Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-45525336f54f40209e06c5cff3e6d3032022-12-21T23:37:47ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222018-10-01811910.1038/s41598-018-34461-0Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling StudyKa Chun Chong0Chi Zhang1Katherine Min Jia2Benny Chung Ying Zee3Tongyong Luo4Lei Wang5Greta Chun Huen Tam6Riyang Sun7Maggie Haitian Wang8Xuhua Guan9JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongHubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongHubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong KongHubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have significantly improved measles control over the past two decades in China. Progress towards eliminating measles currently faces multiple challenges as the infection age increases, and adult-targeted SIA strategies are being considered. This study developed an age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model using a recently published contact matrix to depict measles transmissions between individuals in seven age groups. Hubei, a high measles-incidence province in central China, was the selected setting. The baseline scenario was calibrated by fitting with the 2012–2015 age-stratified incidence data. SIAs targeting multiple age groups were simulated. Adult-targeted (>29 years) two-year SIA cycles produced the greatest annual incidence rate decrease, reducing incidences by half over a long timespan with 90% coverage levels. Incidences could remain below 10/100,000 until 2030 if SIAs were provided to individuals ≥6 years old with at least 50% coverage. These findings will help officials prioritize supplementary vaccination strategies. Public health officials in China should consider adult-to-adult transmissions and provide adult-targeted SIAs. Although officials have reported approximately 90% SIA coverage in the past, SIAs for the adult population should be provided on shorter intervals, particularly for the aging population with decreased immunity.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34461-0Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs)Measles ControlRoutine ImmunizationVarying Coverage LevelsBaseline Scenario |
| spellingShingle | Ka Chun Chong Chi Zhang Katherine Min Jia Benny Chung Ying Zee Tongyong Luo Lei Wang Greta Chun Huen Tam Riyang Sun Maggie Haitian Wang Xuhua Guan Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study Scientific Reports Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) Measles Control Routine Immunization Varying Coverage Levels Baseline Scenario |
| title | Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study |
| title_full | Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study |
| title_fullStr | Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study |
| title_short | Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study |
| title_sort | targeting adults for supplementary immunization activities of measles control in central china a mathematical modelling study |
| topic | Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) Measles Control Routine Immunization Varying Coverage Levels Baseline Scenario |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34461-0 |
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