Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data
Understanding how temporal precipitation variability will behave in the future is crucial. Change point detection and sub-trend analysis were done on monthly total precipitation data acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project in this study. Sub-periods have been de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824001406 |
| _version_ | 1797302465751678976 |
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| author | Cihangir Koycegiz |
| author_facet | Cihangir Koycegiz |
| author_sort | Cihangir Koycegiz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding how temporal precipitation variability will behave in the future is crucial. Change point detection and sub-trend analysis were done on monthly total precipitation data acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project in this study. Sub-periods have been determined based on the natural structure of the data set, as opposed to standard sub-period determination approaches. For the period 1971–2100, six different time series were used under three global climate models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-EARTH, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study area has been selected to be the Konya Endorheic Basin in Turkey, which has been significantly influenced by climate change and human impacts. For change point detection, the Pruned Exact Linear Time method (PELT) and Binary Segmentation (BS) were employed, for trend analysis, Mann Kendall (MK) and Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis (Şen-ITA), and for both change point detection and sub-trend analysis, the Onyutha Trend Test (OTT) was utilized. The findings revealed four change points and five sub-periods. Summer precipitation has reduced considerably at a 95% significance level. There is strong evidence that precipitation has decreased between 1981 and 2070. Precipitation decreases similarly in the middle basin for the 1981–2000 and 2041–2070 years. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:39:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-455ff50dc81247afa5671d0fa1170f85 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:39:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-455ff50dc81247afa5671d0fa1170f852024-02-20T04:18:46ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682024-03-0191368381Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment dataCihangir Koycegiz0Konya Technical University, Department of Civil Engineering, Konya, TurkeyUnderstanding how temporal precipitation variability will behave in the future is crucial. Change point detection and sub-trend analysis were done on monthly total precipitation data acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project in this study. Sub-periods have been determined based on the natural structure of the data set, as opposed to standard sub-period determination approaches. For the period 1971–2100, six different time series were used under three global climate models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-EARTH, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study area has been selected to be the Konya Endorheic Basin in Turkey, which has been significantly influenced by climate change and human impacts. For change point detection, the Pruned Exact Linear Time method (PELT) and Binary Segmentation (BS) were employed, for trend analysis, Mann Kendall (MK) and Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis (Şen-ITA), and for both change point detection and sub-trend analysis, the Onyutha Trend Test (OTT) was utilized. The findings revealed four change points and five sub-periods. Summer precipitation has reduced considerably at a 95% significance level. There is strong evidence that precipitation has decreased between 1981 and 2070. Precipitation decreases similarly in the middle basin for the 1981–2000 and 2041–2070 years.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824001406ChangePointDetection |
| spellingShingle | Cihangir Koycegiz Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data Alexandria Engineering Journal Change Point Detection |
| title | Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of Turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in an endorheic basin of turkey with coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment data |
| topic | Change Point Detection |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824001406 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cihangirkoycegiz spatiotemporalanalysisofprecipitationvariabilityinanendorheicbasinofturkeywithcoordinatedregionalclimatedownscalingexperimentdata |