Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries
Objectives This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was deve...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ophrp.org/upload/pdf/j-phrp-2021-0234.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797760893682974720 |
|---|---|
| author | Mridul Sannyal Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes |
| author_facet | Mridul Sannyal Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes |
| author_sort | Mridul Sannyal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was developed for this purpose. Data were collected (till June 28, 2021) from the official webpage of World Health Organization, along with the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The model was simulated to measure the primary transmission parameters. The reproduction number was measured using the next-generating matrix method. Results The primary transmission rate followed an exponential Gaussian process regression. India showed the highest transmission rate (0.037) and Bhutan the lowest (0.023). The simulated epidemic peaks matched the reported peaks, thereby validating the SEIRD model. The simulation was carried out up to December 31, 2020 using the reported data till June 9, 2020. Conclusion The information gathered in this research will be helpful for authorities to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in the subsequent wave or in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:05:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-458ee8ed165143edb3cdafe8d33bdc12 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2210-9099 2210-9110 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:05:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives |
| spelling | doaj.art-458ee8ed165143edb3cdafe8d33bdc122023-08-02T06:17:08ZengKorea Disease Control and Prevention AgencyOsong Public Health and Research Perspectives2210-90992210-91102022-06-0113319120210.24171/j.phrp.2021.0234665Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countriesMridul Sannyal0Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes1 Department of Industrial and Production Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh Department of Industrial and Production Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, BangladeshObjectives This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was developed for this purpose. Data were collected (till June 28, 2021) from the official webpage of World Health Organization, along with the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The model was simulated to measure the primary transmission parameters. The reproduction number was measured using the next-generating matrix method. Results The primary transmission rate followed an exponential Gaussian process regression. India showed the highest transmission rate (0.037) and Bhutan the lowest (0.023). The simulated epidemic peaks matched the reported peaks, thereby validating the SEIRD model. The simulation was carried out up to December 31, 2020 using the reported data till June 9, 2020. Conclusion The information gathered in this research will be helpful for authorities to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in the subsequent wave or in the future.http://ophrp.org/upload/pdf/j-phrp-2021-0234.pdfcompartmental modelcovid-19epidemic peaknext generating matrixreproduction numbersouth asia |
| spellingShingle | Mridul Sannyal Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives compartmental model covid-19 epidemic peak next generating matrix reproduction number south asia |
| title | Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries |
| title_full | Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries |
| title_fullStr | Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries |
| title_short | Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries |
| title_sort | transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in south asian countries |
| topic | compartmental model covid-19 epidemic peak next generating matrix reproduction number south asia |
| url | http://ophrp.org/upload/pdf/j-phrp-2021-0234.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mridulsannyal transmissionparametersofcoronavirusdisease2019insouthasiancountries AT abulmukidmohammadmukaddes transmissionparametersofcoronavirusdisease2019insouthasiancountries |