Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty
In this paper, we use a generalized dynamic factor model to reconstruct the global economic policy uncertainty index developed by Davis (2016), and we investigate the dynamic dependence structure between global and national economic policy uncertainty using the time-varying copula approach. Based on...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2019-09-01
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| Series: | Quantitative Finance and Economics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/QFE.2019.3.550/fulltext.html |
| _version_ | 1818523723633786880 |
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| author | Yue Liu Yuhang Zheng Benjamin M Drakeford |
| author_facet | Yue Liu Yuhang Zheng Benjamin M Drakeford |
| author_sort | Yue Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we use a generalized dynamic factor model to reconstruct the global economic policy uncertainty index developed by Davis (2016), and we investigate the dynamic dependence structure between global and national economic policy uncertainty using the time-varying copula approach. Based on this novel index, we find that global economic policy uncertainty has overall experienced a "Low-High-Low" trend during the period April 2003 to November 2018, and there are spikes in connection with notable political events and developments around the world. The results also suggest that there generally exists positive dependence between global and national economic policy uncertainty, and the magnitude of dependency in developed countries is much higher than that in developing countries. In addition, the degree of international economic policy incoordination has increased significantly after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:48:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-459cd9aa479f476cad1c978fd4afa8db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2573-0134 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:48:20Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Quantitative Finance and Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-459cd9aa479f476cad1c978fd4afa8db2022-12-22T01:18:53ZengAIMS PressQuantitative Finance and Economics2573-01342019-09-013355056110.3934/QFE.2019.3.550Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertaintyYue Liu0Yuhang Zheng1Benjamin M Drakeford21 School of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Technology, 421001, Hengyang, P. R. China2 School of Finance, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China 3 Collaborative Innovation Development Center of Pearl River Delta Science & Technology Finance Industry, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China4 Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO13DE, United KingdomIn this paper, we use a generalized dynamic factor model to reconstruct the global economic policy uncertainty index developed by Davis (2016), and we investigate the dynamic dependence structure between global and national economic policy uncertainty using the time-varying copula approach. Based on this novel index, we find that global economic policy uncertainty has overall experienced a "Low-High-Low" trend during the period April 2003 to November 2018, and there are spikes in connection with notable political events and developments around the world. The results also suggest that there generally exists positive dependence between global and national economic policy uncertainty, and the magnitude of dependency in developed countries is much higher than that in developing countries. In addition, the degree of international economic policy incoordination has increased significantly after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.https://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/QFE.2019.3.550/fulltext.htmlglobal economic policy uncertaintygeneralized dynamic factor modeltime-varying copulareconstructiondynamic dependence |
| spellingShingle | Yue Liu Yuhang Zheng Benjamin M Drakeford Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty Quantitative Finance and Economics global economic policy uncertainty generalized dynamic factor model time-varying copula reconstruction dynamic dependence |
| title | Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| title_full | Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| title_short | Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| title_sort | reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty |
| topic | global economic policy uncertainty generalized dynamic factor model time-varying copula reconstruction dynamic dependence |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/QFE.2019.3.550/fulltext.html |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yueliu reconstructionanddynamicdependenceanalysisofglobaleconomicpolicyuncertainty AT yuhangzheng reconstructionanddynamicdependenceanalysisofglobaleconomicpolicyuncertainty AT benjaminmdrakeford reconstructionanddynamicdependenceanalysisofglobaleconomicpolicyuncertainty |