Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan
This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–207...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014007 |
| _version_ | 1797748819022053376 |
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| author | Shaukat Ali Dan Li Fu Congbin Firdos Khan |
| author_facet | Shaukat Ali Dan Li Fu Congbin Firdos Khan |
| author_sort | Shaukat Ali |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041–2050 and 2071–2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976–2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071–2100 in contrast with 2041–2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071–2100) in comparison to 2041–2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is larger in winter than in summer, while quantitatively large river flow was projected, particularly during the summer monsoon. Due to high river flow and increase in precipitation in UIB, water availability is likely to be increased in the twenty first century and this may sustain water demands. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:10:19Z |
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| id | doaj.art-45a8d245a62b4c0b81d8f0bb963e6467 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:10:19Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-45a8d245a62b4c0b81d8f0bb963e64672023-08-09T14:09:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110101400710.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014007Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of PakistanShaukat Ali0Dan Li1Fu Congbin2Firdos Khan3START Temperate East Asia Regional Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China , 100029; Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, PakistanSTART Temperate East Asia Regional Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China , 100029START Temperate East Asia Regional Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China , 100029Institute of Statistics, Alpen-Adria University , 9020 Klagenfurt, AustriaThis study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041–2050 and 2071–2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976–2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071–2100 in contrast with 2041–2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071–2100) in comparison to 2041–2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is larger in winter than in summer, while quantitatively large river flow was projected, particularly during the summer monsoon. Due to high river flow and increase in precipitation in UIB, water availability is likely to be increased in the twenty first century and this may sustain water demands.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014007climatic changeshydrological changesHimalayahigh resolution climate modelshydrological modelsUpper Indus Basin (UIB) |
| spellingShingle | Shaukat Ali Dan Li Fu Congbin Firdos Khan Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan Environmental Research Letters climatic changes hydrological changes Himalaya high resolution climate models hydrological models Upper Indus Basin (UIB) |
| title | Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan |
| title_full | Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan |
| title_short | Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan |
| title_sort | twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over upper indus basin of himalayan region of pakistan |
| topic | climatic changes hydrological changes Himalaya high resolution climate models hydrological models Upper Indus Basin (UIB) |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014007 |
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