On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8 |
| _version_ | 1827869554730074112 |
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| author | S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick D A Stone D M Mitchell S Rosier A D King Y T E Lo J Pastor-Paz D Frame M Wehner |
| author_facet | S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick D A Stone D M Mitchell S Rosier A D King Y T E Lo J Pastor-Paz D Frame M Wehner |
| author_sort | S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-45aa71e7bd744ebd8e9177b86e92a5f0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:53Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-45aa71e7bd744ebd8e9177b86e92a5f02023-08-09T15:24:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117202400910.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate changeS E Perkins-Kirkpatrick0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915D A Stone1D M Mitchell2S Rosier3A D King4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-5745Y T E Lo5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-7272J Pastor-Paz6D Frame7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0949-3994M Wehner8School of Science, UNSW Canberra, Canberra Australia, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney , Sydney, AustraliaNIWA , Wellington, Aotearoa, New ZealandSchool of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomNIWA , Wellington, Aotearoa, New ZealandSchool of Geography, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne , Melbourne, AustraliaSchool of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomGeological and Nuclear Sciences Institute (GNS Science) , Wellington, New ZealandNew Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington , Wellington, New ZealandLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory , Berkeley, CA, United States of AmericaInvestigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8impactsattributionclimate and weather extremesclimate change |
| spellingShingle | S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick D A Stone D M Mitchell S Rosier A D King Y T E Lo J Pastor-Paz D Frame M Wehner On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change Environmental Research Letters impacts attribution climate and weather extremes climate change |
| title | On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full | On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_fullStr | On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_short | On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_sort | on the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change |
| topic | impacts attribution climate and weather extremes climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8 |
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