Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity
Abstract Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term gl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2021-12-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00223-5 |
| _version_ | 1819097793098153984 |
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| author | Rongfan Chai Jiafu Mao Haishan Chen Yaoping Wang Xiaoying Shi Mingzhou Jin Tianbao Zhao Forrest M. Hoffman Daniel M. Ricciuto Stan D. Wullschleger |
| author_facet | Rongfan Chai Jiafu Mao Haishan Chen Yaoping Wang Xiaoying Shi Mingzhou Jin Tianbao Zhao Forrest M. Hoffman Daniel M. Ricciuto Stan D. Wullschleger |
| author_sort | Rongfan Chai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term global aridity changes using multisource observation-based aridity index, factorial simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and rigorous detection and attribution (D&A) methods. Our study found that anthropogenic forcings, mainly rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and aerosols, caused the increased aridification of the globe and each hemisphere with high statistical confidence for 1965–2014; the GHGE contributed to drying trends, whereas the aerosol emissions led to wetting tendencies; moreover, the bias-corrected CMIP6 future aridity index based on the scaling factors from optimal D&A demonstrated greater aridification than the original simulations. These findings highlight the dominant role of human effects on increasing aridification at broad spatial scales, implying future reductions in aridity will rely primarily on the GHGE mitigation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:20:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-45ac3aa4715c44a0b1ce91902555ac7a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:20:44Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-45ac3aa4715c44a0b1ce91902555ac7a2022-12-21T18:45:09ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222021-12-01411810.1038/s41612-021-00223-5Human-caused long-term changes in global aridityRongfan Chai0Jiafu Mao1Haishan Chen2Yaoping Wang3Xiaoying Shi4Mingzhou Jin5Tianbao Zhao6Forrest M. Hoffman7Daniel M. Ricciuto8Stan D. Wullschleger9Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment, University of TennesseeEnvironmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryInstitute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment, University of TennesseeKey Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesComputational Sciences and Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryEnvironmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryEnvironmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryAbstract Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term global aridity changes using multisource observation-based aridity index, factorial simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and rigorous detection and attribution (D&A) methods. Our study found that anthropogenic forcings, mainly rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and aerosols, caused the increased aridification of the globe and each hemisphere with high statistical confidence for 1965–2014; the GHGE contributed to drying trends, whereas the aerosol emissions led to wetting tendencies; moreover, the bias-corrected CMIP6 future aridity index based on the scaling factors from optimal D&A demonstrated greater aridification than the original simulations. These findings highlight the dominant role of human effects on increasing aridification at broad spatial scales, implying future reductions in aridity will rely primarily on the GHGE mitigation.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00223-5 |
| spellingShingle | Rongfan Chai Jiafu Mao Haishan Chen Yaoping Wang Xiaoying Shi Mingzhou Jin Tianbao Zhao Forrest M. Hoffman Daniel M. Ricciuto Stan D. Wullschleger Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity |
| title_full | Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity |
| title_fullStr | Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity |
| title_short | Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity |
| title_sort | human caused long term changes in global aridity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00223-5 |
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