Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States
Compound events (e.g., co-occurrence of two extreme weather events simultaneously) have the potential to aggravate the impacts of heat wave and stagnation on ozone through nonlinear effects. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), this study investigated t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720301365 |
| _version_ | 1818393841574608896 |
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| author | Yang Gao Junxi Zhang Feifan Yan L. Ruby Leung Kun Luo Yang Zhang Michelle L. Bell |
| author_facet | Yang Gao Junxi Zhang Feifan Yan L. Ruby Leung Kun Luo Yang Zhang Michelle L. Bell |
| author_sort | Yang Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Compound events (e.g., co-occurrence of two extreme weather events simultaneously) have the potential to aggravate the impacts of heat wave and stagnation on ozone through nonlinear effects. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), this study investigated the impact of compound extreme weather events on ozone enhancement in the contiguous U.S. The analyses are based on simulations for the historical (2001–2006) and future (2046–2055) periods previously performed, with emissions in the future following the A1B/B2 emission scenarios produced by the Technology Driver Model (TDM). While A1B reflects rapid economic growth, B2 emphasizes more on local environmental sustainability, hence lower anthropogenic emissions. With overall warming in the future, the frequency and intensity of compound extreme events increase more than that of heat waves. Thus compound events promote higher ozone concentration compared to the single extreme events of heat wave and stagnation in larger areas of the U.S. in the future relative to the present. However, averaged over the U.S., the amplification effect of compound events on ozone enhancement is diminished in the future. Sensitivity experiments to isolate the effect of climate change versus emission change showed that climate change under the future emission scenarios dominates the weakening amplification effect of compound events. Further analyses to examine the nonlinear effect of compound events (NLRE), defined as the difference between the enhanced effect on ozone during compound events and the additive effect of heat waves and stagnation relative to non-extreme, showed that regions prone to positive NLRE tend to have compound events marked by higher temperature and stronger stagnation than the single extreme events. Simulations showed reduced mean positive NLRE in the U.S. in the future, suggesting that future emission reduction may provide a previously unrecognized benefit in ozone pollution control by reducing the impacts of compound events on ozone. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T05:51:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-460e628941fa4ac2b9449960a11690a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T05:51:43Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-460e628941fa4ac2b9449960a11690a92022-12-21T23:14:42ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472020-12-0130100285Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United StatesYang Gao0Junxi Zhang1Feifan Yan2L. Ruby Leung3Kun Luo4Yang Zhang5Michelle L. Bell6Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266100, China; Corresponding author.State Key Laboratory of Clean Energy, Department of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, ChinaFrontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266100, ChinaAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USAState Key Laboratory of Clean Energy, Department of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, USASchool of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USACompound events (e.g., co-occurrence of two extreme weather events simultaneously) have the potential to aggravate the impacts of heat wave and stagnation on ozone through nonlinear effects. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), this study investigated the impact of compound extreme weather events on ozone enhancement in the contiguous U.S. The analyses are based on simulations for the historical (2001–2006) and future (2046–2055) periods previously performed, with emissions in the future following the A1B/B2 emission scenarios produced by the Technology Driver Model (TDM). While A1B reflects rapid economic growth, B2 emphasizes more on local environmental sustainability, hence lower anthropogenic emissions. With overall warming in the future, the frequency and intensity of compound extreme events increase more than that of heat waves. Thus compound events promote higher ozone concentration compared to the single extreme events of heat wave and stagnation in larger areas of the U.S. in the future relative to the present. However, averaged over the U.S., the amplification effect of compound events on ozone enhancement is diminished in the future. Sensitivity experiments to isolate the effect of climate change versus emission change showed that climate change under the future emission scenarios dominates the weakening amplification effect of compound events. Further analyses to examine the nonlinear effect of compound events (NLRE), defined as the difference between the enhanced effect on ozone during compound events and the additive effect of heat waves and stagnation relative to non-extreme, showed that regions prone to positive NLRE tend to have compound events marked by higher temperature and stronger stagnation than the single extreme events. Simulations showed reduced mean positive NLRE in the U.S. in the future, suggesting that future emission reduction may provide a previously unrecognized benefit in ozone pollution control by reducing the impacts of compound events on ozone.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720301365Compound extreme eventsOzoneClimate changeNonlinear effect |
| spellingShingle | Yang Gao Junxi Zhang Feifan Yan L. Ruby Leung Kun Luo Yang Zhang Michelle L. Bell Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States Weather and Climate Extremes Compound extreme events Ozone Climate change Nonlinear effect |
| title | Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States |
| title_full | Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States |
| title_fullStr | Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States |
| title_short | Nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the United States |
| title_sort | nonlinear effect of compound extreme weather events on ozone formation over the united states |
| topic | Compound extreme events Ozone Climate change Nonlinear effect |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720301365 |
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