Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia
Abstract This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design bas...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 |
| _version_ | 1797801429675540480 |
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| author | Francesc Belvis Alberto Aleta Álvaro Padilla-Pozo Juan-M. Pericàs Juan Fernández-Gracia Jorge P. Rodríguez Víctor M. Eguíluz Charles Novaes De Santana Mireia Julià Joan Benach the COVID-SHINE group |
| author_facet | Francesc Belvis Alberto Aleta Álvaro Padilla-Pozo Juan-M. Pericàs Juan Fernández-Gracia Jorge P. Rodríguez Víctor M. Eguíluz Charles Novaes De Santana Mireia Julià Joan Benach the COVID-SHINE group |
| author_sort | Francesc Belvis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:50:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4694d62fb42f420aa71f3f1b3bf516df |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:50:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-4694d62fb42f420aa71f3f1b3bf516df2023-06-18T11:13:27ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-06-0113111110.1038/s41598-023-36169-2Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in CataloniaFrancesc Belvis0Alberto Aleta1Álvaro Padilla-Pozo2Juan-M. Pericàs3Juan Fernández-Gracia4Jorge P. Rodríguez5Víctor M. Eguíluz6Charles Novaes De Santana7Mireia Julià8Joan Benach9the COVID-SHINE groupResearch Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu FabraInstitute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of ZaragozaResearch Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu FabraResearch Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu FabraInstituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu FabraResearch Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu FabraAbstract This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 |
| spellingShingle | Francesc Belvis Alberto Aleta Álvaro Padilla-Pozo Juan-M. Pericàs Juan Fernández-Gracia Jorge P. Rodríguez Víctor M. Eguíluz Charles Novaes De Santana Mireia Julià Joan Benach the COVID-SHINE group Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia Scientific Reports |
| title | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
| title_full | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
| title_fullStr | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
| title_short | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
| title_sort | key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of covid 19 in catalonia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 |
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