SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spre...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wellcome
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Wellcome Open Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/7-161/v1 |
| _version_ | 1798040598907715584 |
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| author | Ewan Colman Christopher J. Banks Oliver Tearne Thomas Doherty Katherine E. Atkins Mark Arnold Gaël Beaunée Daniel Balaz Jessica Enright Paul R. Bessell Gianluigi Rossi Adam Kleczkowski Rowland R. Kao Anne-Sophie Ruget |
| author_facet | Ewan Colman Christopher J. Banks Oliver Tearne Thomas Doherty Katherine E. Atkins Mark Arnold Gaël Beaunée Daniel Balaz Jessica Enright Paul R. Bessell Gianluigi Rossi Adam Kleczkowski Rowland R. Kao Anne-Sophie Ruget |
| author_sort | Ewan Colman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:09:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-469f3c631af6485eb74ff34b2a3ba8d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2398-502X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:09:53Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Wellcome |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wellcome Open Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-469f3c631af6485eb74ff34b2a3ba8d62022-12-22T04:00:35ZengWellcomeWellcome Open Research2398-502X2022-05-01719604SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]Ewan Colman0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2551-8589Christopher J. Banks1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7650-1598Oliver Tearne2Thomas Doherty3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-5595Katherine E. Atkins4Mark Arnold5Gaël Beaunée6Daniel Balaz7Jessica Enright8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0266-3292Paul R. Bessell9Gianluigi Rossi10Adam Kleczkowski11Rowland R. Kao12https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0919-6401Anne-Sophie Ruget13Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKThe Animal and Plant Health Agency, Weybridge, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UKMathematics & Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UKFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, on School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT, UKThe Animal and Plant Health Agency, Weybridge, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UKINRAE, Nantes, 44300, FranceRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKSchool of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UKRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKMathematics & Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UKRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH25 9RG, UKBackground: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/7-161/v1COVID-19 epidemic spatio-temporal model deprivation mobilityeng |
| spellingShingle | Ewan Colman Christopher J. Banks Oliver Tearne Thomas Doherty Katherine E. Atkins Mark Arnold Gaël Beaunée Daniel Balaz Jessica Enright Paul R. Bessell Gianluigi Rossi Adam Kleczkowski Rowland R. Kao Anne-Sophie Ruget SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] Wellcome Open Research COVID-19 epidemic spatio-temporal model deprivation mobility eng |
| title | SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_full | SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_fullStr | SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_full_unstemmed | SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_short | SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_sort | scovmod a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave covid 19 transmission dynamics version 1 peer review 2 approved |
| topic | COVID-19 epidemic spatio-temporal model deprivation mobility eng |
| url | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/7-161/v1 |
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