A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration
This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estima...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb398 |
| _version_ | 1797747785977561088 |
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| author | Celia McMichael Shouro Dasgupta Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson Ilan Kelman |
| author_facet | Celia McMichael Shouro Dasgupta Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson Ilan Kelman |
| author_sort | Celia McMichael |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be ‘trapped’ populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-46eb5348dce64d1098b443de61054a79 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:34Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-46eb5348dce64d1098b443de61054a792023-08-09T14:55:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151212300510.1088/1748-9326/abb398A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migrationCelia McMichael0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4572-602XShouro Dasgupta1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4080-8066Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6124-2730Ilan Kelman3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4191-6969University of Melbourne , AustraliaFondazione CMCC and Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia , ItalyUniversity of Sussex , United Kingdom; United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) , GermanyCorresponding author: University College London (UCL) , United Kingdom; University of Agder , NorwayThis review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be ‘trapped’ populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb398adaptationclimate changefloodsmigrationsea-level rise |
| spellingShingle | Celia McMichael Shouro Dasgupta Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson Ilan Kelman A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration Environmental Research Letters adaptation climate change floods migration sea-level rise |
| title | A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration |
| title_full | A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration |
| title_fullStr | A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration |
| title_full_unstemmed | A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration |
| title_short | A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration |
| title_sort | review of estimating population exposure to sea level rise and the relevance for migration |
| topic | adaptation climate change floods migration sea-level rise |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb398 |
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