The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence
Abstract Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a stru...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00844-z |
| _version_ | 1797811259510358016 |
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| author | Adam D. Switzer Joseph Christensen Joanna Aldridge David Taylor Jim Churchill Holly Watson Matthew W. Fraser Jenny Shaw |
| author_facet | Adam D. Switzer Joseph Christensen Joanna Aldridge David Taylor Jim Churchill Holly Watson Matthew W. Fraser Jenny Shaw |
| author_sort | Adam D. Switzer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a structured analysis of novel historical archive information that has uncovered reports of an extreme storm surge associated with a Tropical Cyclone in 1921 that generated remarkable overland flow which left fish and sharks stranded up to 9.66 km (6 miles) inland. Weighted information from historical archives is placed in a new framework and provide inputs to modelling of this event which improves the understanding of its magnitude and furnishes records of the impacts of what occurred on that day and notably also in the years following. The suite of plausible tracks that reproduce the historical data contextualise the storm as a marginal Category 4 or 5 storm and its return interval as equivalent or slightly greater than the current local planning level for coastal flooding in the region. The outcome underscores the global importance of examining the probable maximum event for risk management in areas of marginal cyclone influence where vulnerable ecosystems or vital regional infrastructure of key economic importance are located, and the need to factor in TC risk in marine conservation and planning in the Shark Bay World Heritage Property. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:21:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-46f05bd0d9cd4c748f6078eef4bfb150 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:21:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-46f05bd0d9cd4c748f6078eef4bfb1502023-06-04T11:39:19ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-05-014111210.1038/s43247-023-00844-zThe utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influenceAdam D. Switzer0Joseph Christensen1Joanna Aldridge2David Taylor3Jim Churchill4Holly Watson5Matthew W. Fraser6Jenny Shaw7Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological UniversitySchool of Humanities, University of Western AustraliaSchool of Geosciences, University of SydneyBaird Australia, Level 22 227 Elizabeth StBaird Australia, Level 22 227 Elizabeth StBaird Australia, Level 22 227 Elizabeth StOceanOmics Centre, The Minderoo Foundation, Forrest HallWestern Australian Marine Science InstitutionAbstract Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a structured analysis of novel historical archive information that has uncovered reports of an extreme storm surge associated with a Tropical Cyclone in 1921 that generated remarkable overland flow which left fish and sharks stranded up to 9.66 km (6 miles) inland. Weighted information from historical archives is placed in a new framework and provide inputs to modelling of this event which improves the understanding of its magnitude and furnishes records of the impacts of what occurred on that day and notably also in the years following. The suite of plausible tracks that reproduce the historical data contextualise the storm as a marginal Category 4 or 5 storm and its return interval as equivalent or slightly greater than the current local planning level for coastal flooding in the region. The outcome underscores the global importance of examining the probable maximum event for risk management in areas of marginal cyclone influence where vulnerable ecosystems or vital regional infrastructure of key economic importance are located, and the need to factor in TC risk in marine conservation and planning in the Shark Bay World Heritage Property.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00844-z |
| spellingShingle | Adam D. Switzer Joseph Christensen Joanna Aldridge David Taylor Jim Churchill Holly Watson Matthew W. Fraser Jenny Shaw The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_full | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_fullStr | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_full_unstemmed | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_short | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_sort | utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00844-z |
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