| Summary: | Background Breast cancer is the leading cause of death among women worldwide, characterized by high incidence and heavy disease burden. Objective To assess the secular trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese females from 1990 to 2019. Methods The data on breast cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese females aged ≥15 years from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to fit breast cancer incidence and mortality trends during 1990—2019 to assess the effects of age, period and cohort on breast cancer incidence and mortality. Results The crude incidence of breast cancer among Chinese females increased from 14.14/100 000 to 52.81/100 000, and the crude mortality increased from 7.22/100 000 to 13.40/100 000 during 1990—2019.The standardized incidence of breast cancer showed an increasing trend in general (17.07/100 000 in 1990, 35.61/100 000 in 2019) , while the standardized breast cancer mortality was basically stable (9.16/100 000 in 1990, 8.98/100 000 in 2019) .The results of the APC model showed that the average net drift value of breast cancer incidence in females of all age groups was 2.58%〔95%CI (2.34%, 2.83%) 〕, and the highest value of local drift was 3.46%〔95%CI (3.11%, 3.80%) 〕 in the 65-69 years old group. The average net drift value of mortality was -0.75%〔95%CI (-1.09%, -0.41%) 〕. The local drift value was stable in 15-44-year-olds, and was above 0 in age groups above 60 years old. The incidence and mortality of breast cancer increased with age. The period effect of incidence showed an increasing trend (RR: 0.79-1.47) , while the period effect of mortality showed a decreasing trend (RR: 1.08-0.90) when the period of 2000—2004 was set as the control group. The cohort effect of breast cancer incidence increased (RR: 0.27-2.48) , and the cohort effect of breast cancer mortality risk increased firstly and decreased after then (RR: 0.78-1.06-0.44) when the cohort of 1955—1959 was set as the control group. Conclusion The incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese females increased continuously from 1990 to 2019, which was dominantly influenced by age and cohort.
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