Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission
Abstract The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence usin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9 |
| _version_ | 1818716188572647424 |
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| author | Jailos Lubinda Ubydul Haque Yaxin Bi Busiku Hamainza Adrian J. Moore |
| author_facet | Jailos Lubinda Ubydul Haque Yaxin Bi Busiku Hamainza Adrian J. Moore |
| author_sort | Jailos Lubinda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T19:15:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-474f8537ed6c4269b0da983cce7a4475 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T19:15:17Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-474f8537ed6c4269b0da983cce7a44752022-12-21T21:35:45ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-01-0111111310.1038/s41598-020-80432-9Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmissionJailos Lubinda0Ubydul Haque1Yaxin Bi2Busiku Hamainza3Adrian J. Moore4School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science CentreSchool of Computing, Ulster UniversityMinistry of Health, National Malaria Elimination CentreSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster UniversityAbstract The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9 |
| spellingShingle | Jailos Lubinda Ubydul Haque Yaxin Bi Busiku Hamainza Adrian J. Moore Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission Scientific Reports |
| title | Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission |
| title_full | Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission |
| title_fullStr | Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission |
| title_short | Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission |
| title_sort | near term climate change impacts on sub national malaria transmission |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9 |
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