The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium)
In this paper, we try to analyze the effects of oil boom and management of oil revenues by government in a sustainable manner on optimal path of Iranian macroeconomic variables by designing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. This paper considers several scenarios of utilizing oil...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Tarbiat Modares University
2016-08-01
|
| Series: | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-2278-en.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797803254081388544 |
|---|---|
| author | Ebrahim Hosseininasab Solmaz Abdullahi Haghi Alireza Naseri Lotfali Agheli |
| author_facet | Ebrahim Hosseininasab Solmaz Abdullahi Haghi Alireza Naseri Lotfali Agheli |
| author_sort | Ebrahim Hosseininasab |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we try to analyze the effects of oil boom and management of oil revenues by government in a sustainable manner on optimal path of Iranian macroeconomic variables by designing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. This paper considers several scenarios of utilizing oil revenues in terms of allocating these revenues between savings in the form of oil fund on the one hand and consumption of oil revenues on the other hand. The results show that the a 50 percent increase in world oil price leads to higher optimal level of GDP, but the level of GDP excluding oil exports is reduced. According to the results, the long-term reaction of Iranian economy in the face of permanent shocks of oil price is consistent with the theory of Dutch disease. Due to the Dutch disease, production factors are decreased in tradable sectors and increased in oil and non-tradable sectors. However, the increase in employment in the oil and non-tradable sectors will not compensate for the fall of employment in the tradable sectors, thus total employment will decline. The analysis of oil revenue management shows that saving oil revenue in an oil fund leads to higher level of total consumption and gross domestic product in the long run. Saving oil revenues in an oil fund not only ensures precautionary measures against the so-called Dutch Disease syndrome, but also leads to increase in total employment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-477d48477ec34c87bed2bcf25fbb810b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-6768 2980-7832 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:04Z |
| publishDate | 2016-08-01 |
| publisher | Tarbiat Modares University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| spelling | doaj.art-477d48477ec34c87bed2bcf25fbb810b2023-06-15T20:21:51ZfasTarbiat Modares Universityپژوهشهای اقتصادی1735-67682980-78322016-08-01162173200The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium)Ebrahim Hosseininasab0Solmaz Abdullahi Haghi1Alireza Naseri2Lotfali Agheli3 Associate Professor of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University Ph.D. student of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University Assistant Professor of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University Assistant Professor of Economics, Economic Research Institute, Tarbiat Modares University In this paper, we try to analyze the effects of oil boom and management of oil revenues by government in a sustainable manner on optimal path of Iranian macroeconomic variables by designing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. This paper considers several scenarios of utilizing oil revenues in terms of allocating these revenues between savings in the form of oil fund on the one hand and consumption of oil revenues on the other hand. The results show that the a 50 percent increase in world oil price leads to higher optimal level of GDP, but the level of GDP excluding oil exports is reduced. According to the results, the long-term reaction of Iranian economy in the face of permanent shocks of oil price is consistent with the theory of Dutch disease. Due to the Dutch disease, production factors are decreased in tradable sectors and increased in oil and non-tradable sectors. However, the increase in employment in the oil and non-tradable sectors will not compensate for the fall of employment in the tradable sectors, thus total employment will decline. The analysis of oil revenue management shows that saving oil revenue in an oil fund leads to higher level of total consumption and gross domestic product in the long run. Saving oil revenues in an oil fund not only ensures precautionary measures against the so-called Dutch Disease syndrome, but also leads to increase in total employment.http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-2278-en.pdfoil boommanagement of oil revenuesoil funddutch diseasecomputable general equilibrium model |
| spellingShingle | Ebrahim Hosseininasab Solmaz Abdullahi Haghi Alireza Naseri Lotfali Agheli The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) پژوهشهای اقتصادی oil boom management of oil revenues oil fund dutch disease computable general equilibrium model |
| title | The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) |
| title_full | The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) |
| title_fullStr | The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) |
| title_short | The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium) |
| title_sort | effects of oil boom and oil revenues management on the optimal path of iranian macroeconomic variables based on dynamic computable general equilibrium |
| topic | oil boom management of oil revenues oil fund dutch disease computable general equilibrium model |
| url | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-2278-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ebrahimhosseininasab theeffectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT solmazabdullahihaghi theeffectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT alirezanaseri theeffectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT lotfaliagheli theeffectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT ebrahimhosseininasab effectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT solmazabdullahihaghi effectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT alirezanaseri effectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium AT lotfaliagheli effectsofoilboomandoilrevenuesmanagementontheoptimalpathofiranianmacroeconomicvariablesbasedondynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium |