Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan
In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Osc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee99 |
| _version_ | 1797737701981552640 |
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| author | Azfar Hussain Ishtiaq Hussain Shaukat Ali Waheed Ullah Abolfazl Rezaei Shaukat Ali Safi Ullah Haider Abbas Asima Manzoom Jinxing Zhou Jianhua Cao |
| author_facet | Azfar Hussain Ishtiaq Hussain Shaukat Ali Waheed Ullah Abolfazl Rezaei Shaukat Ali Safi Ullah Haider Abbas Asima Manzoom Jinxing Zhou Jianhua Cao |
| author_sort | Azfar Hussain |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 °C dec ^−1 in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 °C dec ^−1 respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP + WP + WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in terms of better planning and policies in light of climate change as well as atmospheric circulation variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:32:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-47af3501614440e8a5af7307d26babd1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:32:15Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-47af3501614440e8a5af7307d26babd12023-08-24T07:13:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118909402810.1088/1748-9326/acee99Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in PakistanAzfar Hussain0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7160-4002Ishtiaq Hussain1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2816-2397Shaukat Ali2Waheed Ullah3Abolfazl Rezaei4Shaukat Ali5Safi Ullah6Haider Abbas7Asima Manzoom8Jinxing Zhou9https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2182-9849Jianhua Cao10International Research Center on Karst under the Auspices of UNESCO; Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences , Guilin 541004, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Chung Yuan Christian University , Chung-Li 32023, TaiwanGlobal Change Impact Study Centre, Ministry of Climate Change , Islamabad, PakistanDefense and Security, Rabdan Academy , Abu Dhabi 114646, United Arab EmiratesDepartment of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences , Zanjan 45137–66731, IranDepartment of Environmental Science, Karakoram International University , Gilgit 15100, PakistanEnvironmental Science and Engineering Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) , Thuwal, Saudi Arabia; KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative (CLI), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) , Thuwal, Saudi ArabiaSynthesis Research Centre of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Sociology, Fatima Jinnah Women University , Rawalpindi 44000, PakistanJianshui Research Station, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University , Beijing 100083, People’s Republic of ChinaInternational Research Center on Karst under the Auspices of UNESCO; Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences , Guilin 541004, People’s Republic of ChinaIn recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 °C dec ^−1 in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 °C dec ^−1 respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP + WP + WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in terms of better planning and policies in light of climate change as well as atmospheric circulation variability.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee99temperatureAtlantic and Pacific teleconnectionswavelet coherenceENSOglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Azfar Hussain Ishtiaq Hussain Shaukat Ali Waheed Ullah Abolfazl Rezaei Shaukat Ali Safi Ullah Haider Abbas Asima Manzoom Jinxing Zhou Jianhua Cao Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan Environmental Research Letters temperature Atlantic and Pacific teleconnections wavelet coherence ENSO global warming |
| title | Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan |
| title_full | Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan |
| title_short | Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan |
| title_sort | ocean atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in pakistan |
| topic | temperature Atlantic and Pacific teleconnections wavelet coherence ENSO global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee99 |
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