Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics
Abstract The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle in the Paris Area. The mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since the 2003 event. Those heatwaves have had environmental and health impacts, which of...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5 |
| _version_ | 1797577167127707648 |
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| author | Pascal Yiou Camille Cadiou Davide Faranda Aglaé Jézéquel Nemo Malhomme George Miloshevich Robin Noyelle Flavio Pons Yoann Robin Mathieu Vrac |
| author_facet | Pascal Yiou Camille Cadiou Davide Faranda Aglaé Jézéquel Nemo Malhomme George Miloshevich Robin Noyelle Flavio Pons Yoann Robin Mathieu Vrac |
| author_sort | Pascal Yiou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle in the Paris Area. The mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since the 2003 event. Those heatwaves have had environmental and health impacts, which often came as surprises. In this paper, we search for the most extreme heatwaves in Ile-de-France that are physically plausible, under climate change scenarios, for the decades around 2024. We circumvent the sampling limitation by applying a rare event algorithm on CMIP6 data to evaluate the range of such extremes. We find that the 2003 record can be exceeded by more than 4 °C in Ile-de-France before 2050, with a combination of prevailing anticyclonic conditions and cut-off lows. This study intends to raise awareness of those unprecedented events, against which our societies are ill-prepared, in spite of adaptation measures designed from previous events. Those results could be extended to other areas of the world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:04:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4805308fb7724ae68c594df385ea2d05 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:04:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-4805308fb7724ae68c594df385ea2d052023-11-19T12:50:55ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-11-01611810.1038/s41612-023-00500-5Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 OlympicsPascal Yiou0Camille Cadiou1Davide Faranda2Aglaé Jézéquel3Nemo Malhomme4George Miloshevich5Robin Noyelle6Flavio Pons7Yoann Robin8Mathieu Vrac9Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS-ENS-XLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-SaclayAbstract The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle in the Paris Area. The mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since the 2003 event. Those heatwaves have had environmental and health impacts, which often came as surprises. In this paper, we search for the most extreme heatwaves in Ile-de-France that are physically plausible, under climate change scenarios, for the decades around 2024. We circumvent the sampling limitation by applying a rare event algorithm on CMIP6 data to evaluate the range of such extremes. We find that the 2003 record can be exceeded by more than 4 °C in Ile-de-France before 2050, with a combination of prevailing anticyclonic conditions and cut-off lows. This study intends to raise awareness of those unprecedented events, against which our societies are ill-prepared, in spite of adaptation measures designed from previous events. Those results could be extended to other areas of the world.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5 |
| spellingShingle | Pascal Yiou Camille Cadiou Davide Faranda Aglaé Jézéquel Nemo Malhomme George Miloshevich Robin Noyelle Flavio Pons Yoann Robin Mathieu Vrac Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics |
| title_full | Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics |
| title_fullStr | Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics |
| title_short | Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics |
| title_sort | ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the paris 2024 olympics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5 |
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