Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis
Abstract Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer inc...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16056-y |
| _version_ | 1811287290090094592 |
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| author | Yi-Chu Chen Shih-Yung Su Jing-Rong Jhuang Chun-Ju Chiang Ya-Wen Yang Chao-Chun Wu Li-Ju Lin Wen-Chung Lee |
| author_facet | Yi-Chu Chen Shih-Yung Su Jing-Rong Jhuang Chun-Ju Chiang Ya-Wen Yang Chao-Chun Wu Li-Ju Lin Wen-Chung Lee |
| author_sort | Yi-Chu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016 and project trends up to 2035. The (truncated) world standard population (World Health Organization 2000) proportions (age groups: 25–29, 30–34, …, 80–84, and older than 85 years) were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. The age-standardized incidence rate from 1997 (60.33/100,000 population) to 2016 (128.20/100,000 population) increased rapidly. The projection is that the increase in the age-standardized incidence will subsequently slow and exhibit a plateau in 2031 (151.32/100,000 population). From 2026 to 2035, the age-specific incidence rates for women older than 55 years old (postmenopausal breast cancer) are projected to increase with larger percentage increments for older women. A future leveling of female breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan is anticipated. The majority of the patients with breast cancer in the future will be women aged 55 years and older. Education on lifestyle recommendations and mammography screening is required to reduce the burden of breast cancer. The results should have implications for other countries which are also confronted with the same public health problem of rapidly increasing breast cancer incidences. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T03:16:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-48213fe8313d4d84bce88ebbddef068b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T03:16:19Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-48213fe8313d4d84bce88ebbddef068b2022-12-22T03:04:55ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-07-011211710.1038/s41598-022-16056-yForecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysisYi-Chu Chen0Shih-Yung Su1Jing-Rong Jhuang2Chun-Ju Chiang3Ya-Wen Yang4Chao-Chun Wu5Li-Ju Lin6Wen-Chung Lee7Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan UniversityInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan UniversityInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan UniversityInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan UniversityTaiwan Cancer RegistryHealth Promotion AdministrationHealth Promotion AdministrationInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan UniversityAbstract Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016 and project trends up to 2035. The (truncated) world standard population (World Health Organization 2000) proportions (age groups: 25–29, 30–34, …, 80–84, and older than 85 years) were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. The age-standardized incidence rate from 1997 (60.33/100,000 population) to 2016 (128.20/100,000 population) increased rapidly. The projection is that the increase in the age-standardized incidence will subsequently slow and exhibit a plateau in 2031 (151.32/100,000 population). From 2026 to 2035, the age-specific incidence rates for women older than 55 years old (postmenopausal breast cancer) are projected to increase with larger percentage increments for older women. A future leveling of female breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan is anticipated. The majority of the patients with breast cancer in the future will be women aged 55 years and older. Education on lifestyle recommendations and mammography screening is required to reduce the burden of breast cancer. The results should have implications for other countries which are also confronted with the same public health problem of rapidly increasing breast cancer incidences.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16056-y |
| spellingShingle | Yi-Chu Chen Shih-Yung Su Jing-Rong Jhuang Chun-Ju Chiang Ya-Wen Yang Chao-Chun Wu Li-Ju Lin Wen-Chung Lee Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis Scientific Reports |
| title | Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full | Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_short | Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_sort | forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in taiwan an age period cohort analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16056-y |
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