Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections
Mid- to high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions with the strongest warming trend and it is also a region where ecosystems are most sensitive to climate variability. However, how the vegetation in the region will change in the future remains uncertain. Using observation-based Leaf Area Index (...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/10/2648 |
| _version_ | 1797598443946901504 |
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| author | Jiangfeng Wei Xiaocong Liu Botao Zhou |
| author_facet | Jiangfeng Wei Xiaocong Liu Botao Zhou |
| author_sort | Jiangfeng Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mid- to high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions with the strongest warming trend and it is also a region where ecosystems are most sensitive to climate variability. However, how the vegetation in the region will change in the future remains uncertain. Using observation-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) and meteorological data and the multiple regression method, this study analyzes the response of vegetation in the MHA to climate elements during 1982–2020. Then, machine learning prediction models based on the Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Random Tree (ERT) algorithms are built and validated. Based on the calibrated meteorological fields from 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios and the machine learning models, the LAI over the MHA in 2021–2100 is projected. The historical long-term increasing trends of LAI in the MHA since 1982 are found to be mainly caused by the increasing near-surface air temperature, while the interannual variations of LAI are also greatly affected by precipitation and surface downward solar radiation, especially in summer. The LAI over most of the MHA shows a significant increasing trend in the future, except over some dry areas, and the increasing trends are stronger under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:21:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-48281c55537146828ca80f81d51c6044 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:21:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-48281c55537146828ca80f81d51c60442023-11-18T03:08:12ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-05-011510264810.3390/rs15102648Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation ProjectionsJiangfeng Wei0Xiaocong Liu1Botao Zhou2Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaMid- to high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions with the strongest warming trend and it is also a region where ecosystems are most sensitive to climate variability. However, how the vegetation in the region will change in the future remains uncertain. Using observation-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) and meteorological data and the multiple regression method, this study analyzes the response of vegetation in the MHA to climate elements during 1982–2020. Then, machine learning prediction models based on the Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Random Tree (ERT) algorithms are built and validated. Based on the calibrated meteorological fields from 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios and the machine learning models, the LAI over the MHA in 2021–2100 is projected. The historical long-term increasing trends of LAI in the MHA since 1982 are found to be mainly caused by the increasing near-surface air temperature, while the interannual variations of LAI are also greatly affected by precipitation and surface downward solar radiation, especially in summer. The LAI over most of the MHA shows a significant increasing trend in the future, except over some dry areas, and the increasing trends are stronger under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/10/2648climate changeleaf area indexvegetation prediction |
| spellingShingle | Jiangfeng Wei Xiaocong Liu Botao Zhou Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections Remote Sensing climate change leaf area index vegetation prediction |
| title | Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections |
| title_full | Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections |
| title_short | Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections |
| title_sort | sensitivity of vegetation to climate in mid to high latitudes of asia and future vegetation projections |
| topic | climate change leaf area index vegetation prediction |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/10/2648 |
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